BYU @ East Carolina: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2025)

Sat, Sep 20, 2025, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 4 · at East Carolina

Weather at kickoff73°F7 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

BYU

2-0 · Power #19

▲ winner

Final

East Carolina

2-1 · Power #51

final

Closing spread

BYU -5.5

✓ BYU W

Total

49.5

▼ Under · 47 pts

Model before kickoff

BYU 28–22 ECU

✓ BYU (66%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBYU -7.5

CloseBYU -5.5

Total48.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBYU -7.5

2 → ECU

CloseBYU -5.5

2 pts toward East Carolina

Total

Open48.5

▲ 1

Close49.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BYU -7.5 · closed BYU -5.5 · moved 2 toward ECUmodel BYU -7.5

model BYU -7.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 59%, covered 50% (104 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 62% (50 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBYU -7.5

CloseBYU -5.5

Total48.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BYU as a 5.5-point road favorite at ECU, the favorite won 4, covered 3, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: BYU won 34–13; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 47 points stayed under 49.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 63%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 3.4 against an average line of 5; 48.8 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	ND @ DUKE 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & total	-5.5	21–14	W	U52.5
Close	AUB @ CAL 2023 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & spread	-5	14–10	L	U55.5
Loose	TA&M @ MIA 2023 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & total	-3	33–48	L	O50.5
Loose	KSU @ MIZ 2023 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation & total	-3.5	27–30	L	O48.5
Loose	KSU @ BYU 2024 · Week 4 · loose · similar total & situation	-7.5	9–38	L	U49.5
Loose	ND @ NCSU 2023 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & spread	-7	45–24	W	O49.5
Loose	MSST @ LSU 2022 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation	-3	16–31	L	U53
Loose	ND @ LOU 2023 · Week 6 · loose · similar spread & situation	-6	20–33	L	U54
Loose	MEM @ TROY 2025 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation & spread	-4.5	28–7	W	U51.5
Loose	MINN @ ILL 2022 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest	-4.5	14–26	L	P40

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BYU WW	2-0	100%	—	2-0
ECU WWW	3-0	100%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: BYU away, as favorite; ECU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BYU OU	1-1	50%	2-0
ECU UOU	1-2	33%	2-1

Stayed under: it needed 24 in the 4th quarter and got 21. 54% of games with totals 45.5–53.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BYU	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%
ECU	7-3 70%	8-1 89%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BYU+7.8 →+11.1▲ 3.3#26

ECU−5.0 →+1.1▲ 6.1#67

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

BYU

Longer bar = better

ECU

#28

Offense

◀ BYU better

#57

Defense

◀ BYU better

#27

+1.5 #17

Turnovers

ECU better ▶

+2.3 #1

67 plays #62

Pace

ECU faster ▶

80 plays #6

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BYU has the ball

Even matchup

	BYU off	ECU def	Edge
Points / game	48.0 #10	9.0 #11	Even
Yards / play	7.00 #25	4.11 #24	Even
PPA / play	+0.29 #32	−0.02 #40	Even
Success rate	47% #46	35% #31	Even

When ECU has the ball

Advantage: BYU defense

	ECU off	BYU def	Edge
Points / game	37.0 #41	1.5 #1	BYU
Yards / play	6.00 #61	2.12 #1	BYU
PPA / play	+0.21 #52	−0.35 #2	BYU
Success rate	43% #75	24% #4	BYU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 131 FBS teams

BYU scoring against the ECU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BYU scored	10.0	21.5	31.5	8.0	8.5	16.5
ECU allowed	1.0 #12	5.7 #45	6.7 #28	2.3 #24	0.0 #1	2.3 #2

ECU scoring against the BYU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ECU scored	8.0 #40	9.3 #59	17.3 #55	7.0 #57	12.7 #6	19.7 #21
BYU allowed	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.5	1.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.