Sat, Sep 6, 2025, 10:15 PM EDTWeek 2 · at BYU
Closing spread
BYU -20.5
✓ BYU W
Total
43.5
▼ Under · 30 pts
Model before kickoff
STAN 14–36 BYU
✓ BYU (94%) won
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenBYU -17.5
CloseBYU -20.5
Total47.5 → 43.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenBYU -17.5
3 → BYU
CloseBYU -20.5
3 pts toward BYU
Total
Open47.5
▼ 4
Close43.5
Down 4 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened BYU -17.5 · closed BYU -20.5 · moved 3 toward BYUmodel BYU -25
model BYU -25
Opened 47.5 · closed 43.5 · moved 4 downmodel 50
model 50
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 19.5–21.5 since 2023: won 94%, covered 47% (79 games)ⓘ
Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 51% (155 games since 2024)ⓘ
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenBYU -17.5
CloseBYU -20.5
Total47.5 → 43.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
No recent game is a close match for
BYU as a 20.5-point home favorite against STAN. Try “Overall” or remove a filter under Customize.
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History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 4 trends and market moves behind it
Slight BYU ATS trend Hit
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 873-886 (50%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
Slight Under trend Hit
Slight-or-stronger total leans went 509-553 (48%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
Green signals have beaten the market in our backtest; yellow ones only describe the data.
Market moved toward BYU
3 pts (BYU -17.5 → BYU -20.5). · Backtest 2024–26: 446-443 (50%)
Total moved down 4
47.5 → 43.5. · Backtest 2024–26: 462-498 (48%)
BYU at altitude (+1.4 km)
Stanford climb about 4,561 ft to play here; visitors have covered less often than the line expects at altitude. · Backtest 2023–26: 64-41 (61%)
Small sample warning
Stanford has 1 game with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Stayed under: it needed 20 in the 4th quarter and got 6. 56% of games with totals 39.5–47.5 went over.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1-9 10% | 2-8 20% | 4-6 40% | |
| 8-2 80% | 6-4 60% | 8-2 80% |
Matchup stats
Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams
Power rating this season
pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot
STAN−3.7 →−6.7▼ 3.0#97
BYU+7.8 →+10.8▲ 3.0#25
Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1
Longer bar = better
#111
Offense
BYU better ▶#2
#78
Defense
BYU better ▶#2
0.0 #69
Turnovers
◀ STAN better0.0 #86
73 plays #23
Pace
◀ STAN faster66 plays #79
Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense
| STAN off | BYU def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 20.0 #104 | 0.0 #2 | BYU |
| Yards / play | 3.92 #131 | 1.16 #1 | BYU |
| PPA / play | +0.06 #99 | −0.44 #2 | BYU |
| Success rate | 37% #109 | 15% #2 | BYU |
| BYU off | STAN def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 69.0 #1 | 23.0 #81 | BYU |
| Yards / play | 9.18 #2 | 4.78 #63 | BYU |
| PPA / play | +0.89 #1 | +0.01 #59 | BYU |
| Success rate | 62% #5 | 45% #109 | BYU |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
home-field points in the model
Weather
72° · 1 mph
gusts 6 mph · at kickoff
Rest
STAN14d bye
BYU7d
STAN +7 days
Tempo
Fast 139 plays
slowavg 133fast
Altitude
STAN +4,561 ft
thin air for the visitors
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week

