Boston College @ Stanford: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2025)

Sat, Sep 13, 2025, 10:30 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Stanford · Conference game

Weather at kickoff63°F5 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

Boston College

1-1 · Power #84

final

Final

Stanford

0-2 · Power #85

▲ winner

Closing spread

BC -13.5

✓ STAN W

Total

46.5

▲ Over · 50 pts

Model before kickoff

BC 32–19 STAN

✗ BC (82%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBC -11.5

CloseBC -13.5

Total44.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBC -11.5

2 → BC

CloseBC -13.5

2 pts toward Boston College

Total

Open44.5

▲ 2

Close46.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BC -11.5 · closed BC -13.5 · moved 2 toward BCmodel BC -9

model BC -9

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 12.5–14.5 since 2023: won 80%, covered 47% (60 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 52% (162 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBC -11.5

CloseBC -13.5

Total44.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BC as a 13.5-point road favorite at STAN, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: STAN won 30–20 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 50 points went over 46.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 79%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 12.3 against an average line of 14.1; 55.9 points a game (usually 54.1). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	ARMY @ TLSA 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & season form	-13.5	49–7	W	O50.5
Close	WASH @ ASU 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-13.5	38–45	L	O56
Close	MD @ NU 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & team ratings	-14	27–33	L	O48.5
Close	ISU @ HOU 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-16.5	20–0	W	U43
Close	BOIS @ WYO 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-14.5	20–17	L	U44.5
Close	AFA @ CSU 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-14.5	30–13	W	U47.5
Close	TULN @ USF 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-12	45–31	W	O55
Close	CLEM @ FSU 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-16.5	29–13	L	U47
Close	DUKE @ BC 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar spread	-12	38–31	L	O47.25
Close	UK @ VAN 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-13.5	45–28	W	O50

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BC WW	2-0	100%	1-0	1-0
STAN LL	0-2	0%	—	0-2

Venue/role: BC away, as favorite; STAN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BC OO	2-0	100%	1-1
STAN UU	0-2	0%	0-2

Went over in Q3. Of 371 earlier overs in games with totals 42.5–50.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BC	4-6 40%	7-3 70%	8-2 80%
STAN	1-9 10%	2-8 20%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

BC 2–3 STAN STAN leads · 5 games since 1979 · STAN has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BC+1.8 →+5.5▲ 3.7#47

STAN−3.7 →−6.4▼ 2.7#92

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

Longer bar = better

STAN

#26

Offense

◀ BC better

#130

#41

Defense

◀ BC better

#74

+0.5 #53

Turnovers

◀ BC better

−1.5 #126

74 plays #20

Pace

◀ BC faster

65 plays #86

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BC has the ball

Advantage: BC offense

	BC off	STAN def	Edge
Points / game	53.0 #7	25.0 #86	BC
Yards / play	6.84 #32	4.83 #56	BC
PPA / play	+0.31 #30	+0.03 #62	BC
Success rate	50% #34	43% #90	BC

When STAN has the ball

Advantage: BC defense

	STAN off	BC def	Edge
Points / game	11.5 #133	26.0 #94	BC
Yards / play	3.47 #136	4.22 #31	BC
PPA / play	−0.05 #125	−0.10 #22	BC
Success rate	35% #125	30% #15	BC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 112 FBS teams

BC scoring against the STAN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BC scored	7.0	14.0	21.0	13.5	12.0	25.5
STAN allowed	6.5	7.5	14.0	6.5	4.5	11.0

STAN scoring against the BC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
STAN scored	5.0	1.5	6.5	0.0	5.0	5.0
BC allowed	5.0	3.5	8.5	5.0	5.0	10.0

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.