Boston College @ Michigan State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2025)

Sat, Sep 6, 2025, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Michigan State

Weather at kickoff57°F9 mphgusts 22DryWeather watch ›

Boston College

1-0 · Power #84

final

Final

Michigan State

1-0 · Power #67

▲ winner

Closing spread

MSU -3.5

✓ BC W

Total

45.5

▲ Over · 82 pts

Model before kickoff

BC 20–22 MSU

✓ MSU (58%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMSU -3.5

CloseMSU -3.5

Total46.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMSU -3.5

no move

CloseMSU -3.5

No change since the open

Total

Open46.5

▼ 1

Close45.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MSU -3.5 · unchangedmodel Pick’em

model Pick’em

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 58%, covered 49% (216 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMSU -3.5

CloseMSU -3.5

Total46.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 6 games most like MSU as a 3.5-point home favorite against BC, the favorite won 4, covered 4, and 3 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: MSU won 42–40; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 2 of the 6 similar games. 82 points went over 45.5, as in 3 of 6.

Favorite won

4 of 667%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

4 of 667%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

3 of 650%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 6 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 2.5 against an average line of 4.4; 44.5 points a game (usually 52.8). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 6 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	TA&M vs MIA 2022 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation & rest	-6.5	17–9	W	U45.5
Loose	PITT vs CIN 2023 · Week 2 · loose · similar rest & situation	-6.5	21–27	L	O44.5
Loose	BYU vs BAY 2022 · Week 2 · loose · similar spread & rest	-2.5	26–20	W	U55
Loose	ND vs LOU 2024 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & situation	-6.5	31–24	W	O45
Loose	IU vs ILL 2022 · Week 1 · loose · similar total & situation	-1	23–20	W	U47.5
Loose	VT vs RUTG 2024 · Week 4 · loose · similar total & situation	-3.25	23–26	L	O44.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BC W	1-0	100%	—	—
MSU L	0-1	0%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: BC away, as underdog; MSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BC O	1-0	100%	1-0
MSU U	0-1	0%	1-0

Went over in Q3. Of 319 earlier overs in games with totals 41.5–49.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BC	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%
MSU	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

BC 1–0 MSU BC leads · 1 game since 2023 · BC has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 21 2024	Michigan State 19 @ Boston College 23	BC -4.5	MSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BC+1.8 →+5.2▲ 3.4#45

MSU+0.3 →+2.4▲ 2.1#61

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

Longer bar = better

MSU

#32

Offense

◀ BC better

#81

#17

Defense

Even

#17

+1.0 #38

Turnovers

◀ BC better

−1.0 #101

78 plays #15

Pace

◀ BC faster

68 plays #61

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BC has the ball

Even matchup

	BC off	MSU def	Edge
Points / game	66.0 #4	6.0 #18	Even
Yards / play	7.12 #25	3.81 #30	Even
PPA / play	+0.32 #43	−0.44 #7	MSU
Success rate	47% #55	23% #13	MSU

When MSU has the ball

Advantage: BC defense

	MSU off	BC def	Edge
Points / game	23.0 #82	10.0 #41	BC
Yards / play	4.94 #91	2.55 #7	BC
PPA / play	−0.01 #105	−0.46 #4	BC
Success rate	49% #47	24% #17	BC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.