Georgia Southern @ USC: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2025)

Sat, Sep 6, 2025, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 2 · at USC

Weather at kickoff89°F6 mphgusts 19DryWeather watch ›

Georgia Southern

0-1 · Power #105

final

Final

USC

1-0 · Power #12

▲ winner

Closing spread

USC -28.5

✓ USC W

Total

62.5

▲ Over · 79 pts

Model before kickoff

GASO 17–46 USC

✓ USC (98%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSC -27.5

CloseUSC -28.5

Total64.5 → 62.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUSC -27.5

1 → USC

CloseUSC -28.5

1 pt toward USC

Total

Open64.5

▼ 2

Close62.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened USC -27.5 · closed USC -28.5 · moved 1 toward USCmodel USC -30.5

model USC -30.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 27.5–29.5 since 2023: won 98%, covered 61% (49 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 52% (147 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSC -27.5

CloseUSC -28.5

Total64.5 → 62.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 2 games most like USC as a 28.5-point home favorite against GASO, the favorite won 2, covered 1, and 1 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: USC won 59–20; the favorite covered, as in 1 of the 2 similar games. 79 points went over 62.5, as in 1 of 2.

Favorite won

2 of 2100%

Normal range · usually 96%

Favorite covered

1 of 250%

Normal range · usually 57%

Went over

1 of 250%

Normal range · usually 55%

Only 2 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 19.5 against an average line of 28.3; 45.5 points a game (usually 56). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 2 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LOU vs JXST 2024 · Week 2 · very close · similar season form & situation	-29	49–14	W	O56.5
Loose	OU vs HOU 2024 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & rest	-27.5	16–12	L	U49.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GASO L	0-1	0%	0-1	—
USC W	1-0	100%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: GASO away, as underdog; USC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
GASO O	1-0	100%	0-1
USC O	1-0	100%	1-0

Went over in Q3. Of 165 earlier overs in games with totals 58.5–66.5, 27% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GASO	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
USC	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

GASO−5.7 →−8.6▼ 2.9#103

USC+14.0 →+15.3▲ 1.3#12

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

GASO

Longer bar = better

USC

#96

Offense

USC better ▶

#127

Defense

USC better ▶

#39

+2.0 #26

Turnovers

USC better ▶

+2.0 #11

49 plays #132

Pace

USC faster ▶

57 plays #115

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When GASO has the ball

Advantage: USC defense

	GASO off	USC def	Edge
Points / game	14.0 #109	13.0 #52	USC
Yards / play	4.94 #92	3.93 #36	USC
PPA / play	+0.15 #69	−0.05 #53	Even
Success rate	35% #112	24% #15	USC

When USC has the ball

Advantage: USC offense

	USC off	GASO def	Edge
Points / game	73.0 #1	42.0 #126	USC
Yards / play	10.47 #1	7.32 #130	USC
PPA / play	+0.99 #1	+0.34 #120	USC
Success rate	74% #1	58% #130	USC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.