Akron @ Nebraska: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2025)

Sat, Sep 6, 2025, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Nebraska

Weather at kickoff65°F2 mphgusts 9DryWeather watch ›

Akron

0-1 · Power #127

final

Final

Nebraska

1-0 · Power #45

▲ winner

Closing spread

NEB -33.5

✓ NEB W

Total

47.5

▲ Over · 68 pts

Model before kickoff

AKR 6–39 NEB

✓ NEB (99%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNEB -33.5

CloseNEB -33.5

Total47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenNEB -33.5

no move

CloseNEB -33.5

No change since the open

Total

Open47.5

no move

Close47.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened NEB -33.5 · unchangedmodel NEB -30.5

model NEB -30.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 31.5–35.5 since 2023: won 100%, covered 50% (62 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNEB -33.5

CloseNEB -33.5

Total47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NEB as a 33.5-point home favorite against AKR, the favorite won 10, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: NEB won 68–0; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 68 points went over 47.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 100%

Favorite covered

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 57%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 54%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 35.8 against an average line of 30.4; 50 points a game (usually 57.1). Of the 4 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	MIZ vs NMSU 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar total & season form	-29	45–14	W	O46.5
Close	MSST vs BGSU 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar situation & season form	-31	45–14	P	O53
Close	FLA vs CLT 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar situation & total	-28	22–7	L	U48.5
Close	TA&M vs MASS 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar season form & rest	-32	20–3	L	U46
Loose	M-OH vs KENT 2024 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & total	-30.5	34–7	L	U47.5
Loose	FRES vs KENT 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation & rest	-27.5	53–10	W	O47.5
Loose	IOWA vs WMU 2023 · Week 3 · loose · similar season form & situation	-28.5	41–10	W	O43.25
Loose	TENN vs CONN 2023 · Week 10 · loose · similar season form & spread	-35.5	59–3	W	O55.5
Loose	MSU vs AKR 2022 · Week 2 · loose · similar spread & rest	-34.5	52–0	W	U56
Loose	TXST vs USM 2024 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest	-27.5	58–3	W	O56.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
AKR L	0-1	0%	—	0-1
NEB L	0-1	0%	—	0-1

Venue/role: AKR away, as underdog; NEB home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
AKR U	0-1	0%	0-1
NEB U	0-1	0%	1-0

Went over in Q3. Of 386 earlier overs in games with totals 43.5–51.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
AKR	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
NEB	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

AKR−13.5 →−16.5▼ 3.0#127

NEB+8.3 →+8.4▲ 0.1#31

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

AKR

Longer bar = better

NEB

#130

Offense

NEB better ▶

#80

#74

Defense

◀ AKR better

#95

0.0 #75

Turnovers

NEB better ▶

+2.0 #14

66 plays #75

Pace

NEB faster ▶

78 plays #14

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When AKR has the ball

Advantage: NEB defense

	AKR off	NEB def	Edge
Points / game	0.0 #136	17.0 #73	NEB
Yards / play	3.45 #133	4.93 #79	NEB
PPA / play	−0.26 #129	+0.19 #105	NEB
Success rate	31% #123	55% #121	Even

When NEB has the ball

Even matchup

	NEB off	AKR def	Edge
Points / game	20.0 #88	10.0 #43	AKR
Yards / play	4.53 #106	5.68 #101	Even
PPA / play	+0.12 #78	+0.06 #81	Even
Success rate	49% #46	38% #69	NEB

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.