Akron @ UAB: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2025)

Sat, Sep 13, 2025, 8:30 PM EDTWeek 3 · at UAB

Weather at kickoff81°F4 mphgusts 10DryWeather watch ›

Akron

0-2 · Power #127

final

Final

UAB

1-1 · Power #119

▲ winner

Closing spread

UAB -13.5

✓ AKR W

Total

59.5

▼ Under · 59 pts

Model before kickoff

AKR 23–36 UAB

✓ UAB (83%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUAB -11.5

CloseUAB -13.5

Total53.5 → 59.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUAB -11.5

2 → UAB

CloseUAB -13.5

2 pts toward UAB

Total

Open53.5

▲ 6

Close59.5

Up 6 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UAB -11.5 · closed UAB -13.5 · moved 2 toward UABmodel UAB -13

model UAB -13

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 12.5–14.5 since 2023: won 83%, covered 50% (95 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 52% (161 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUAB -11.5

CloseUAB -13.5

Total53.5 → 59.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 5 games most like UAB as a 13.5-point home favorite against AKR, the favorite won 3, covered 2, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: UAB won 31–28; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 5 similar games. 59 points stayed under 59.5, as in 2 of 5.

Favorite won

3 of 560%

Normal range · usually 79%

Favorite covered

2 of 540%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

3 of 560%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 5 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 8.8 against an average line of 16.7; 61.2 points a game (usually 54.1). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 5 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	ARIZ vs COLO 2022 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest	-17.75	43–20	W	O58
Loose	CLT vs FIU 2022 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & total	-14	15–34	L	U63.5
Loose	WMU vs KENT 2024 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest	-19	52–21	W	O61
Loose	SJSU vs WYO 2024 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & spread	-13	24–14	L	U53
Loose	GAST vs CLT 2022 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation & rest	-19.5	41–42	L	O63.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
AKR LL	0-2	0%	0-1	0-2
UAB LW	1-1	50%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: AKR away, as underdog; UAB home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
AKR UO	1-1	50%	0-2
UAB OO	2-0	100%	1-1

Stayed under: it needed 9 in the 4th quarter and got 8. 48% of games with totals 55.5–63.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
AKR	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
UAB	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

AKR−13.5 →−20.9▼ 7.4#134

UAB−11.1 →−12.1▼ 1.0#115

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

AKR

Longer bar = better

UAB

#137

Offense

UAB better ▶

#24

#120

Defense

◀ AKR better

#136

0.0 #71

Turnovers

◀ AKR better

−1.0 #112

63 plays #104

Pace

◀ AKR faster

59 plays #126

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When AKR has the ball

Even matchup

	AKR off	UAB def	Edge
Points / game	0.0 #137	40.0 #132	Even
Yards / play	3.22 #137	7.88 #136	Even
PPA / play	−0.27 #137	+0.54 #137	Even
Success rate	26% #137	58% #137	Even

When UAB has the ball

Advantage: UAB offense

	UAB off	AKR def	Edge
Points / game	38.0 #41	39.0 #131	UAB
Yards / play	7.91 #11	7.80 #134	UAB
PPA / play	+0.34 #27	+0.18 #105	UAB
Success rate	55% #17	45% #108	UAB

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 107 FBS teams

AKR scoring against the UAB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
AKR scored	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
UAB allowed	10.5	12.0	22.5	7.0	10.5	17.5

UAB scoring against the AKR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UAB scored	8.5	12.0	20.5	10.5	7.0	17.5
AKR allowed	4.5	13.5	18.0	10.5	10.5	21.0

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.