UAB @ Navy: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2025)

Sat, Sep 6, 2025, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Navy · Conference game

Weather at kickoff75°F13 mphgusts 30Wet0.1 mmWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

UAB

1-0 · Power #119

final

Final

Navy

1-0 · Power #64

▲ winner

Closing spread

NAVY -22.5

✓ UAB W

Total

58.5

▲ Over · 62 pts

Model before kickoff

UAB 17–39 NAVY

✓ NAVY (94%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNAVY -21.5

CloseNAVY -22.5

Total59.5 → 58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenNAVY -21.5

1 → NAVY

CloseNAVY -22.5

1 pt toward Navy

Total

Open59.5

▼ 1

Close58.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened NAVY -21.5 · closed NAVY -22.5 · moved 1 toward NAVYmodel NAVY -18.5

model NAVY -18.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 21.5–23.5 since 2023: won 95%, covered 39% (57 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 51% (139 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNAVY -21.5

CloseNAVY -22.5

Total59.5 → 58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NAVY as a 22.5-point home favorite against UAB, the favorite won 9, covered 3, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: NAVY won 38–24; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 62 points went over 58.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 90%

Favorite covered

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 43%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 21.3 against an average line of 22.8; 56.1 points a game (usually 54.3). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	JMU vs TXST 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & rest	-21.75	40–13	W	O51.5
Close	ILL vs CMU 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & rest	-21	30–9	P	U50
Close	MIA vs GT 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar total	-19	20–23	L	U57
Loose	USC vs ASU 2022 · Week 5 · loose · similar total & rest	-24.5	42–25	L	O61
Loose	UK vs NIU 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & situation	-26.75	31–23	L	O53
Loose	SMU vs TLSA 2023 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & spread	-20.5	69–10	W	O55
Loose	ARMY vs UAB 2024 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & situation	-27	44–10	W	U55.5
Loose	TOL vs WMU 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation & spread	-21.5	49–31	L	O52.5
Loose	TULN vs RICE 2024 · Week 8 · loose · similar situation	-21.5	24–10	L	U53
Loose	MD vs CLT 2023 · Week 2 · loose · similar rest & spread	-24.5	38–20	L	O50

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UAB L	0-1	0%	—	—
NAVY W	1-0	100%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: UAB away, as underdog; NAVY home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UAB O	1-0	100%	1-0
NAVY O	1-0	100%	1-0

Went over in Q4. Of 312 earlier overs in games with totals 54.5–62.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UAB	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	8-2 80%
NAVY	7-3 70%	6-3 67%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

UAB 1–3 NAVY NAVY leads · 4 games since 2023 · UAB has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 28 2024	Navy 41 @ UAB 18	NAVY -5.5	NAVY W
Nov 11 2023	UAB 6 @ Navy 31	UAB -2.5	NAVY W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UAB−11.1 →−11.2▼ 0.1#114

NAVY+1.2 →+2.6▲ 1.4#58

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

UAB

Longer bar = better

NAVY

Offense

Even

#14

#129

Defense

NAVY better ▶

#36

+1.0 #34

Turnovers

◀ UAB better

0.0 #57

58 plays #113

Pace

NAVY faster ▶

70 plays #47

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UAB has the ball

Advantage: UAB offense

	UAB off	NAVY def	Edge
Points / game	52.0 #12	7.0 #20	Even
Yards / play	8.97 #7	4.24 #47	UAB
PPA / play	+0.55 #11	−0.04 #55	UAB
Success rate	66% #4	26% #22	Even

When NAVY has the ball

Advantage: NAVY offense

	NAVY off	UAB def	Edge
Points / game	52.0 #11	42.0 #125	NAVY
Yards / play	7.94 #12	7.91 #133	NAVY
PPA / play	+0.49 #19	+0.51 #132	NAVY
Success rate	61% #13	56% #127	NAVY

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.