Tulsa @ New Mexico State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2025)

Sat, Sep 6, 2025, 9:00 PM EDTWeek 2 · at New Mexico State

Weather at kickoff75°F3 mphgusts 9DryWeather watch ›

Tulsa

1-0 · Power #113

final

Final

New Mexico State

1-0 · Power #129

▲ winner

Closing spread

TLSA -3.5

✓ NMSU W

Total

53.5

▼ Under · 35 pts

Model before kickoff

TLSA 28–25 NMSU

✗ TLSA (58%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTLSA -3.5

CloseTLSA -3.5

Total52.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTLSA -3.5

no move

CloseTLSA -3.5

No change since the open

Total

Open52.5

▲ 1

Close53.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TLSA -3.5 · unchangedmodel NMSU -0.5

model NMSU -0.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 56%, covered 48% (149 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTLSA -3.5

CloseTLSA -3.5

Total52.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 6 games most like TLSA as a 3.5-point road favorite at NMSU, the favorite won 3, covered 3, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: NMSU won 21–14 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 6 similar games. 35 points stayed under 53.5, as in 4 of 6.

Favorite won

3 of 650%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

3 of 650%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

2 of 633%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 6 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 6.2 against an average line of 4.2; 45.8 points a game (usually 52.8). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 6 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	NAVY @ UAB 2024 · Week 5 · loose · similar total	-4.5	41–18	W	O56.5
Loose	LIB @ JXST 2023 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest	-7	31–13	W	U59
Loose	RICE @ USF 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & spread	-2.5	29–42	L	O57.5
Loose	MRSH @ TROY 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & spread	-3.25	7–16	L	U51.5
Loose	DUKE @ GT 2022 · Week 6 · loose · similar spread & rest	-3.5	20–23	L	U54
Loose	NAVY @ USF 2024 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & spread	-4.5	28–7	W	U58.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TLSA W	1-0	100%	—	1-0
NMSU L	0-1	0%	0-1	—

Venue/role: TLSA away, as favorite; NMSU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TLSA U	0-1	0%	1-0
NMSU U	0-1	0%	1-0

Stayed under: it needed 37 in the 4th quarter and got 18. 52% of games with totals 49.5–57.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TLSA	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%
NMSU	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TLSA−18.6 →−14.0▲ 4.6#124

NMSU−21.1 →−18.2▲ 2.9#128

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

TLSA

Longer bar = better

NMSU

#41

Offense

◀ TLSA better

#115

#33

Defense

NMSU better ▶

#12

+1.0 #31

Turnovers

◀ TLSA better

0.0 #64

80 plays #7

Pace

◀ TLSA faster

63 plays #96

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TLSA has the ball

Advantage: NMSU defense

	TLSA off	NMSU def	Edge
Points / game	35.0 #49	3.0 #3	NMSU
Yards / play	6.24 #56	3.75 #17	NMSU
PPA / play	+0.39 #18	−0.15 #21	Even
Success rate	48% #39	24% #6	NMSU

When NMSU has the ball

Advantage: TLSA defense

	NMSU off	TLSA def	Edge
Points / game	19.0 #106	7.0 #12	TLSA
Yards / play	4.84 #107	4.41 #45	TLSA
PPA / play	+0.02 #112	−0.16 #19	TLSA
Success rate	28% #134	37% #57	TLSA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.