New Mexico State @ Louisiana Tech: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2025)

Sat, Sep 13, 2025, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Louisiana Tech · Conference game

Weather at kickoff85°F5 mphgusts 14DryWeather watch ›

New Mexico State

2-0 · Power #129

final

Final

Louisiana Tech

1-1 · Power #93

▲ winner

Closing spread

LT -10.5

✓ LT W

Total

42.5

▲ Over · 63 pts

Model before kickoff

NMSU 16–27 LT

✓ LT (77%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLT -12.5

CloseLT -10.5

Total46.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLT -12.5

2 → NMSU

CloseLT -10.5

2 pts toward New Mexico State

Total

Open46.5

▼ 4

Close42.5

Down 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LT -12.5 · closed LT -10.5 · moved 2 toward NMSUmodel LT -9.5

model LT -9.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 9.5–11.5 since 2023: won 76%, covered 41% (101 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 49% (131 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLT -12.5

CloseLT -10.5

Total46.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LT as a 10.5-point home favorite against NMSU, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 2 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: LT won 49–14; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 63 points went over 42.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 75%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

2 of 1020%

Below normal · usually 52%

Overs below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 11.6 against an average line of 9.5; 38 points a game (usually 54.4). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	FRES vs HAW 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & total	-12.5	20–21	L	U45.5
Close	SHSU vs LT 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar rest	-10.5	9–3	L	U45.5
Close	M-OH vs BUFF 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest	-7.5	23–10	W	U37
Close	M-OH vs BGSU 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & total	-7.5	27–0	W	U43
Close	NIU vs EMU 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar rest	-12	20–13	L	U43.5
Loose	CONN vs FIU 2023 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & total	-7	17–24	L	U43.5
Loose	TROY vs USM 2022 · Week 6 · loose · similar situation	-7	27–10	W	U44
Loose	BGSU vs AKR 2023 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & situation	-7	41–14	W	O37
Loose	UNLV vs UNM 2022 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest	-14	31–20	L	O44.25
Loose	LIB vs NMSU 2023 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & rest	-9.5	33–17	W	U54.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NMSU LW	1-1	50%	—	1-0
LT WW	2-0	100%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: NMSU away, as underdog; LT home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NMSU UU	0-2	0%	2-0
LT UU	0-2	0%	1-1

Went over in Q4. Of 214 earlier overs in games with totals 38.5–46.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NMSU	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%
LT	4-6 40%	7-3 70%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

NMSU 2–0 LT NMSU leads · 2 games since 2023 · NMSU has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 15 2024	Louisiana Tech 30 @ New Mexico State 33	LT -12.5	NMSU W
Oct 24 2023	New Mexico State 27 @ Louisiana Tech 24	LT -3	NMSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NMSU−21.1 →−17.2▲ 3.9#130

LT−11.6 →−11.6–#113

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

NMSU

Longer bar = better

#113

Offense

Even

#120

#30

Defense

◀ NMSU better

#46

+1.0 #27

Turnovers

LT better ▶

+2.0 #6

67 plays #58

Pace

◀ NMSU faster

53 plays #135

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NMSU has the ball

Advantage: LT defense

	NMSU off	LT def	Edge
Points / game	20.0 #108	11.5 #30	LT
Yards / play	4.45 #122	4.24 #35	LT
PPA / play	+0.08 #93	−0.04 #46	LT
Success rate	35% #128	39% #72	LT

When LT has the ball

Advantage: NMSU defense

	LT off	NMSU def	Edge
Points / game	15.5 #120	8.5 #13	NMSU
Yards / play	3.92 #131	4.34 #45	NMSU
PPA / play	−0.02 #119	−0.08 #32	NMSU
Success rate	38% #109	33% #29	NMSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 88 FBS teams

NMSU scoring against the LT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NMSU scored	4.5	1.5	6.0	3.5	10.5	14.0
LT allowed	3.5	1.5	5.0	3.5	3.0	6.5

LT scoring against the NMSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LT scored	0.0	1.5	1.5	10.5	3.5	14.0
NMSU allowed	1.5	0.0	1.5	3.5	3.5	7.0

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.