Colorado @ Houston: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2025)

Fri, Sep 12, 2025, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Houston · Conference game

Weather at kickoff85°F6 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›

Colorado

1-1 · Power #75

final

Final

Houston

2-0 · Power #49

▲ winner

Closing spread

HOU -3.5

✓ HOU W

Total

45.5

▲ Over · 56 pts

Model before kickoff

COLO 20–23 HOU

✓ HOU (59%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenHOU -3.5

CloseHOU -3.5

Total43.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenHOU -3.5

no move

CloseHOU -3.5

No change since the open

Total

Open43.5

▲ 2

Close45.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened HOU -3.5 · unchangedmodel HOU -1

model HOU -1

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 58%, covered 49% (220 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenHOU -3.5

CloseHOU -3.5

Total43.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like HOU as a 3.5-point home favorite against COLO, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: HOU won 36–20; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 56 points went over 45.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 2.1 against an average line of 2.9; 40.3 points a game (usually 52.8). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	ISU vs BAY 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	24–31	L	O45
Close	UK vs FLA 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-1.5	33–14	W	O45
Close	BC vs MSU 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-4.5	23–19	L	U45.5
Close	ASU vs BYU 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	28–23	W	O48.5
Close	TULN vs ECU 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	24–9	W	U55.5
Close	RUTG vs WIS 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-1.25	7–42	L	O43.5
Close	ISU vs IOWA 2025 · Week 2 · close · similar spread & rest	-3	16–13	P	U43.25
Close	ILL vs IOWA 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	9–6	L	U36.5
Close	USA vs TROY 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & rest	-3	6–10	L	U47
Close	MSST vs TA&M 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-4	42–24	W	O45

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
COLO LW	1-1	50%	—	0-1
HOU WW	2-0	100%	1-0	2-0

Venue/role: COLO away, as underdog; HOU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
COLO UU	0-2	0%	1-1
HOU UO	1-1	50%	2-0

Went over in Q4. Of 325 earlier overs in games with totals 41.5–49.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
COLO	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%
HOU	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

COLO+9.6 →+4.3▼ 5.3#50

HOU−1.8 →+2.6▲ 4.4#59

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

COLO

Longer bar = better

HOU

#81

Offense

Even

#89

#99

Defense

HOU better ▶

+2.5 #4

Turnovers

Even

+2.0 #13

65 plays #82

Pace

HOU faster ▶

67 plays #63

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When COLO has the ball

Advantage: HOU defense

	COLO off	HOU def	Edge
Points / game	25.5 #82	4.5 #4	HOU
Yards / play	5.41 #89	3.00 #3	HOU
PPA / play	+0.23 #52	−0.22 #9	HOU
Success rate	40% #99	28% #8	HOU

When HOU has the ball

Even matchup

	HOU off	COLO def	Edge
Points / game	31.0 #57	17.0 #58	Even
Yards / play	5.53 #82	6.41 #119	HOU
PPA / play	+0.11 #88	+0.10 #91	Even
Success rate	33% #130	50% #127	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 12 FBS teams

COLO scoring against the HOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
COLO scored	7.0	6.5	13.5	5.0	7.0	12.0
HOU allowed	0.0	1.5	1.5	0.0	3.0	3.0

HOU scoring against the COLO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HOU scored	3.5	8.5	12.0	7.0	12.0	19.0
COLO allowed	0.0	10.0	10.0	3.5	3.5	7.0

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.