Texas State @ Arizona State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2025)

Sat, Sep 13, 2025, 10:30 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Arizona State

Weather at kickoff91°F4 mphgusts 14DryWeather watch ›

Texas State

2-0 · Power #71

final

Final

Arizona State

1-1 · Power #41

▲ winner

Closing spread

ASU -18.5

✓ ASU W

Total

61.5

▼ Under · 49 pts

Model before kickoff

TXST 22–39 ASU

✓ ASU (89%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenASU -14.5

CloseASU -18.5

Total58.5 → 61.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenASU -14.5

4 → ASU

CloseASU -18.5

4 pts toward Arizona State

Total

Open58.5

▲ 3

Close61.5

Up 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ASU -14.5 · closed ASU -18.5 · moved 4 toward ASUmodel ASU -12

model ASU -12

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 17.5–19.5 since 2023: won 96%, covered 52% (81 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 41% (111 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenASU -14.5

CloseASU -18.5

Total58.5 → 61.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ASU as an 18.5-point home favorite against TXST, the favorite won 10, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: ASU won 34–15; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 49 points stayed under 61.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 90%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 13.9 against an average line of 15.9; 60.3 points a game (usually 53.7). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WIS vs GASO 2023 · Week 3 · very close · similar rest & situation	-20.5	35–14	W	U65.5
Close	CIN vs IU 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-16.5	45–24	W	O57
Loose	WAKE vs LIB 2022 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & situation	-17.5	37–36	L	O64
Loose	OU vs KU 2022 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & season form	-10.5	52–42	L	O66.25
Loose	SMU vs BC 2024 · Week 12 · loose · similar spread	-19	38–28	L	O54
Loose	UTSA vs TXST 2023 · Week 2 · loose · similar rest & situation	-14	20–13	L	U66.5
Loose	USC vs WSU 2022 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & total	-12.5	30–14	W	U64.5
Loose	ORE vs STAN 2022 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest	-17.5	45–27	W	O63
Loose	CLEM vs GT 2023 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest	-15.5	42–21	W	O55
Loose	UCF vs HOU 2023 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest	-15.5	27–13	L	U61.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TXST WW	2-0	100%	1-0	1-0
ASU LL	0-2	0%	0-1	0-2

Venue/role: TXST away, as underdog; ASU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TXST OO	2-0	100%	2-0
ASU OU	1-1	50%	1-1

Stayed under: it needed 19 in the 4th quarter and got 6. 46% of games with totals 57.5–65.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TXST	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
ASU	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

TXST 0–2 ASU ASU leads · 2 games since 2024 · ASU has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 12 2024	Arizona State 31 @ Texas State 28	TXST -2.5	ASU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TXST+1.6 →+0.7▼ 0.9#67

ASU+11.1 →+7.9▼ 3.2#34

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

TXST

Longer bar = better

ASU

#21

Offense

◀ TXST better

#65

#107

Defense

ASU better ▶

#54

−0.5 #95

Turnovers

◀ TXST better

−1.0 #113

66 plays #71

Pace

ASU faster ▶

68 plays #54

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TXST has the ball

Advantage: TXST offense

	TXST off	ASU def	Edge
Points / game	47.5 #17	21.5 #72	TXST
Yards / play	8.03 #9	5.04 #66	TXST
PPA / play	+0.41 #13	−0.09 #25	Even
Success rate	47% #43	37% #51	Even

When ASU has the ball

Advantage: ASU offense

	ASU off	TXST def	Edge
Points / game	29.0 #68	31.5 #118	ASU
Yards / play	5.86 #70	5.94 #104	ASU
PPA / play	+0.16 #67	+0.21 #116	ASU
Success rate	46% #56	43% #89	ASU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 112 FBS teams

TXST scoring against the ASU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TXST scored	8.0	13.5	21.5	12.0	14.0	26.0
ASU allowed	5.0	6.5	11.5	3.5	6.5	10.0

ASU scoring against the TXST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ASU scored	7.0	3.0	10.0	10.5	8.5	19.0
TXST allowed	1.5	14.0	15.5	7.0	9.0	16.0

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.