Arizona State @ Mississippi State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2025)

Sat, Sep 6, 2025, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Mississippi State

Weather at kickoff71°F9 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›

Arizona State

1-0 · Power #41

final

Final

Mississippi State

1-0 · Power #56

▲ winner

Closing spread

ASU -5.5

✓ MSST W

Total

58.5

▼ Under · 44 pts

Model before kickoff

ASU 32–26 MSST

✗ ASU (66%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenASU -6.5

CloseASU -5.5

Total59.5 → 58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenASU -6.5

1 → MSST

CloseASU -5.5

1 pt toward Mississippi State

Total

Open59.5

▼ 1

Close58.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ASU -6.5 · closed ASU -5.5 · moved 1 toward MSSTmodel ASU -6.5

model ASU -6.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 61%, covered 52% (99 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 50% (168 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenASU -6.5

CloseASU -5.5

Total59.5 → 58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ASU as a 5.5-point road favorite at MSST, the favorite won 3, covered 1, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: MSST won 24–20 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 9 of the 10 similar games. 44 points stayed under 58.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

3 of 1030%

Below normal · usually 63%

Favorite covered

1 of 1010%

Below normal · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Wins below normal, covers below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: underdog by 5.5 against an average line of 4.5; 57.1 points a game (usually 52.8). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	MSST @ LSU 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & situation	-3	16–31	L	U53
Close	CLEM @ WAKE 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	51–45	L	O58
Close	TENN @ FLA 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & total	-5	16–29	L	U56.5
Close	ND @ LOU 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & rest	-6	20–33	L	U54
Close	WIS @ WSU 2023 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & situation	-5.5	22–31	L	U58
Close	ND @ DUKE 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & rest	-5.5	21–14	W	U52.5
Close	ORST @ WSU 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-3	35–38	L	O58.5
Close	UTAH @ UCLA 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	32–42	L	O64.5
Close	WASH @ UCLA 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest	-2.5	32–40	L	O65
Loose	LOU @ NCSU 2023 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & total	-3.5	13–10	L	U55.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ASU L	0-1	0%	—	0-1
MSST W	1-0	100%	—	—

Venue/role: ASU away, as favorite; MSST home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ASU O	1-0	100%	1-0
MSST U	0-1	0%	1-0

Stayed under: it needed 32 in the 4th quarter and got 17. 49% of games with totals 54.5–62.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ASU	8-2 80%	8-2 80%	7-3 70%
MSST	2-8 20%	7-2 78%	5-4 56%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

ASU 1–0 MSST ASU leads · 1 game since 2023 · ASU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 7 2024	Mississippi State 23 @ Arizona State 30	ASU -6.5	ASU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ASU+11.1 →+9.9▼ 1.2#28

MSST+0.7 →+0.7–#66

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

ASU

Longer bar = better

MSST

#35

Offense

◀ ASU better

#53

Defense

Even

#50

0.0 #67

Turnovers

◀ ASU better

0.0 #81

61 plays #93

Pace

MSST faster ▶

77 plays #16

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ASU has the ball

Even matchup

	ASU off	MSST def	Edge
Points / game	38.0 #39	17.0 #76	ASU
Yards / play	7.51 #16	4.07 #42	ASU
PPA / play	+0.39 #33	−0.10 #44	Even
Success rate	48% #51	32% #39	Even

When MSST has the ball

Even matchup

	MSST off	ASU def	Edge
Points / game	34.0 #52	19.0 #82	MSST
Yards / play	6.04 #57	4.66 #65	Even
PPA / play	+0.29 #50	−0.25 #19	ASU
Success rate	48% #54	33% #45	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.