Michigan @ Oklahoma: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2025)

Sat, Sep 6, 2025, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Oklahoma

Weather at kickoff70°F6 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Michigan

1-0 · Power #21

final

Final

Oklahoma

1-0 · Power #16

▲ winner

Closing spread

OU -3.5

✓ OU W

Total

44.5

▼ Under · 37 pts

Model before kickoff

MICH 18–22 OU

✓ OU (59%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenOU -5.5

CloseOU -3.5

Total45.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenOU -5.5

2 → MICH

CloseOU -3.5

2 pts toward Michigan

Total

Open45.5

▼ 1

Close44.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened OU -5.5 · closed OU -3.5 · moved 2 toward MICHmodel OU -2

model OU -2

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 58%, covered 49% (216 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 49% (125 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenOU -5.5

CloseOU -3.5

Total45.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like OU as a 3.5-point home favorite against MICH, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: OU won 24–13; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 37 points stayed under 44.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.5 against an average line of 3.6; 47.7 points a game (usually 52.8). Of the 5 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	RUTG vs WASH 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar total & rest	-1.25	21–18	W	U45
Close	CLEM vs NCST 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & total	-6.5	30–20	W	O45.75
Close	UK vs FLA 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar total & rest	-1.5	33–14	W	O45
Loose	IOWA vs ISU 2024 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & rest	-3	19–20	L	O36
Loose	MICH vs OSU 2023 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest & total	-3	30–24	W	O47
Loose	ORST vs UCLA 2023 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & spread	-3.5	36–24	W	O53.5
Loose	ISU vs BAY 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & total	-2.5	24–31	L	O45
Loose	BC vs MSU 2024 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & spread	-4.5	23–19	L	U45.5
Loose	NCST vs FSU 2022 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest	-3.5	19–17	L	U50.5
Loose	ND vs LOU 2024 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & situation	-6.5	31–24	W	O45

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MICH L	0-1	0%	—	—
OU L	0-1	0%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: MICH away, as underdog; OU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MICH O	1-0	100%	1-0
OU U	0-1	0%	1-0

Stayed under: it needed 11 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 55% of games with totals 40.5–48.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MICH	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
OU	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MICH+12.2 →+12.1▼ 0.1#20

OU+11.4 →+11.0▼ 0.4#23

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

MICH

Longer bar = better

#44

Offense

Even

#31

#50

Defense

OU better ▶

#18

+2.0 #17

Turnovers

◀ MICH better

−2.0 #118

63 plays #86

Pace

OU faster ▶

69 plays #56

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MICH has the ball

Advantage: OU defense

	MICH off	OU def	Edge
Points / game	34.0 #48	3.0 #13	OU
Yards / play	7.17 #23	3.28 #15	Even
PPA / play	+0.35 #38	−0.19 #25	Even
Success rate	44% #68	26% #19	OU

When OU has the ball

Even matchup

	OU off	MICH def	Edge
Points / game	35.0 #46	17.0 #75	OU
Yards / play	7.17 #24	3.51 #20	Even
PPA / play	+0.45 #21	−0.17 #31	Even
Success rate	53% #33	38% #74	OU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.