Ball State @ Auburn: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2025)

Sat, Sep 6, 2025, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Auburn

Weather at kickoff79°F0 mphgusts 7Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Ball State

0-1 · Power #133

final

Final

Auburn

1-0 · Power #24

▲ winner

Closing spread

AUB -42.5

✓ BALL W

Total

52.5

▼ Under · 45 pts

Model before kickoff

BALL 6–47 AUB

✓ AUB (100%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenAUB -42.5

CloseAUB -42.5

Total54.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenAUB -42.5

no move

CloseAUB -42.5

No change since the open

Total

Open54.5

▼ 2

Close52.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened AUB -42.5 · unchangedmodel AUB -36.5

model AUB -36.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 40.5–44.5 since 2023: won 100%, covered 55% (41 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenAUB -42.5

CloseAUB -42.5

Total54.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 1 games most like AUB as a 42.5-point home favorite against BALL, the favorite won 1, covered 1, and 0 went over the total.

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This game: AUB won 42–3; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 0 of the 1 similar games. 45 points stayed under 52.5, as in 1 of 1.

Favorite won

1 of 1100%

Normal range · usually 100%

Favorite covered

1 of 1100%

Normal range · usually 60%

Went over

0 of 10%

Normal range · usually 50%

Only 1 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 48 against an average line of 43; 54 points a game (usually 58.6). When games like this go over ›

All 1 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	OU vs TEM 2024 · Week 1 · loose · similar spread & situation	-43	51–3	W	U57.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BALL L	0-1	0%	0-1	0-1
AUB W	1-0	100%	—	—

Venue/role: BALL away, as underdog; AUB home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BALL U	0-1	0%	0-1
AUB O	1-0	100%	1-0

Stayed under: it needed 22 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 52% of games with totals 48.5–56.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BALL	2-8 20%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
AUB	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BALL−15.8 →−19.1▼ 3.3#130

AUB+11.0 →+11.4▲ 0.4#21

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

BALL

Longer bar = better

AUB

#127

Offense

AUB better ▶

#43

#125

Defense

AUB better ▶

#100

0.0 #71

Turnovers

Even

0.0 #79

52 plays #128

Pace

AUB faster ▶

69 plays #58

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BALL has the ball

Advantage: AUB defense

	BALL off	AUB def	Edge
Points / game	0.0 #135	24.0 #96	AUB
Yards / play	3.90 #126	6.71 #120	Even
PPA / play	−0.13 #125	+0.25 #110	Even
Success rate	32% #120	38% #72	AUB

When AUB has the ball

Advantage: AUB offense

	AUB off	BALL def	Edge
Points / game	38.0 #41	31.0 #110	AUB
Yards / play	6.01 #59	7.34 #131	AUB
PPA / play	+0.29 #49	+0.56 #134	AUB
Success rate	56% #23	56% #124	AUB

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.