West Virginia @ Ohio: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2025)

Sat, Sep 6, 2025, 4:00 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Ohio

Weather at kickoff63°F7 mphgusts 16Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

West Virginia

1-0 · Power #77

final

Final

Ohio

0-1 · Power #78

▲ winner

Closing spread

WVU -3.5

✓ OHIO W

Total

58.5

▼ Under · 27 pts

Model before kickoff

WVU 29–26 OHIO

✗ WVU (61%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWVU -3.5

CloseWVU -3.5

Total60.5 → 58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenWVU -3.5

no move

CloseWVU -3.5

No change since the open

Total

Open60.5

▼ 2

Close58.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened WVU -3.5 · unchangedmodel WVU -5

model WVU -5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 57%, covered 48% (147 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWVU -3.5

CloseWVU -3.5

Total60.5 → 58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WVU as a 3.5-point road favorite at OHIO, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: OHIO won 17–10 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 27 points stayed under 58.5, as in 8 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 9.1 against an average line of 4.8; 46.9 points a game (usually 52.8). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	SYR @ PUR 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & rest	-1	35–20	W	U56.5
Loose	ND @ NCSU 2023 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & rest	-7	45–24	W	O49.5
Loose	LOU @ NCSU 2023 · Week 5 · loose · similar spread & rest	-3.5	13–10	L	U55.5
Loose	UAB @ LIB 2022 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & rest	-6	14–21	L	U50
Loose	MD @ MSU 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation & rest	-7.5	31–9	W	U52.5
Loose	TENN @ PITT 2022 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & rest	-6	34–27	W	U62.75
Loose	MRSH @ TROY 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar spread & rest	-3.25	7–16	L	U51.5
Loose	UNLV @ ORST 2024 · Week 8 · loose · similar situation & rest	-6.5	33–25	W	U61.5
Loose	TCU @ UNC 2025 · Week 1 · loose · similar spread & situation	-3.5	48–14	W	O55
Loose	DUKE @ GT 2022 · Week 6 · loose · similar spread & rest	-3.5	20–23	L	U54

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WVU L	0-1	0%	—	0-1
OHIO W	1-0	100%	—	1-0

Venue/role: WVU away, as favorite; OHIO home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WVU U	0-1	0%	1-0
OHIO O	1-0	100%	0-1

Stayed under: it needed 32 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 50% of games with totals 54.5–62.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WVU	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
OHIO	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WVU+0.8 →+3.5▲ 2.7#54

OHIO−3.2 →−3.2–#80

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

WVU

Longer bar = better

OHIO

#19

Offense

◀ WVU better

#57

Defense

◀ WVU better

#117

−2.0 #121

Turnovers

OHIO better ▶

0.0 #61

76 plays #20

Pace

◀ WVU faster

62 plays #90

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WVU has the ball

Advantage: WVU offense

	WVU off	OHIO def	Edge
Points / game	45.0 #26	34.0 #113	WVU
Yards / play	8.22 #9	6.65 #118	WVU
PPA / play	+0.43 #25	+0.33 #119	WVU
Success rate	59% #15	50% #116	WVU

When OHIO has the ball

Advantage: WVU defense

	OHIO off	WVU def	Edge
Points / game	31.0 #55	3.0 #14	WVU
Yards / play	7.10 #27	2.08 #4	WVU
PPA / play	+0.24 #56	−0.38 #9	WVU
Success rate	39% #89	17% #9	WVU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.