Pittsburgh @ West Virginia: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2025)

Sat, Sep 13, 2025, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 3 · at West Virginia

Weather at kickoff84°F7 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

Pittsburgh

2-0 · Power #35

final

Final

West Virginia

1-1 · Power #77

▲ winner

Closing spread

PITT -6.5

✓ WVU W

Total

54.5

▲ Over · 55 pts

Model before kickoff

PITT 30–25 WVU

✗ PITT (64%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPITT -5.5

ClosePITT -6.5

Total57.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenPITT -5.5

1 → PITT

ClosePITT -6.5

1 pt toward Pittsburgh

Total

Open57.5

▼ 3

Close54.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened PITT -5.5 · closed PITT -6.5 · moved 1 toward PITTmodel Pick’em

model Pick’em

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 57% (118 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 52% (153 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPITT -5.5

ClosePITT -6.5

Total57.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like PITT as a 6.5-point road favorite at WVU, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: WVU won 31–24 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 55 points went over 54.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 68%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0.9 against an average line of 5.5; 47.9 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	MSST @ LSU 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & situation	-3	16–31	L	U53
Close	TULN @ NAVY 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	35–0	W	U49
Close	MD @ MSU 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	31–9	W	U52.5
Close	TULN @ ARMY 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar rest & spread	-5	14–35	L	O46.5
Close	LOU @ NCSU 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest	-3.5	13–10	L	U55.5
Close	UCF @ ECU 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & rest	-5.5	13–34	L	U63
Close	TEX @ TTU 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-7	34–37	L	O60.25
Loose	TENN @ PITT 2022 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & spread	-6	34–27	W	U62.75
Loose	ASU @ MSST 2025 · Week 2 · loose · similar rest & situation	-5.75	20–24	L	U58.5
Loose	CLEM @ FSU 2022 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & spread	-4.5	34–28	W	O51

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PITT WW	2-0	100%	—	2-0
WVU LL	0-2	0%	0-1	—

Venue/role: PITT away, as favorite; WVU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
PITT OO	2-0	100%	2-0
WVU UU	0-2	0%	1-1

Went over in OT. Of 424 earlier overs in games with totals 50.5–58.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PITT	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
WVU	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

PITT 1–1 WVU Series tied · 2 games since 2023 · PITT has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 14 2024	West Virginia 34 @ Pittsburgh 38	WVU -1.5	PITT W
Sep 16 2023	Pittsburgh 6 @ West Virginia 17	WVU -2.5	WVU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

PITT+2.5 →+4.2▲ 1.7#51

WVU+0.8 →+1.9▲ 1.1#65

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

PITT

Longer bar = better

WVU

#15

Offense

◀ PITT better

#67

#24

Defense

Even

#20

−0.5 #97

Turnovers

WVU better ▶

0.0 #82

62 plays #105

Pace

WVU faster ▶

66 plays #76

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When PITT has the ball

Even matchup

	PITT off	WVU def	Edge
Points / game	53.0 #10	10.0 #23	Even
Yards / play	7.51 #19	4.00 #27	Even
PPA / play	+0.42 #14	−0.20 #11	Even
Success rate	55% #18	31% #18	Even

When WVU has the ball

Advantage: PITT defense

	WVU off	PITT def	Edge
Points / game	27.5 #76	13.0 #38	PITT
Yards / play	6.63 #38	3.37 #5	PITT
PPA / play	+0.09 #90	−0.02 #51	PITT
Success rate	44% #63	23% #3	PITT

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 42 FBS teams

PITT scoring against the WVU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PITT scored	10.5	18.5	29.0	10.5	13.5	24.0
WVU allowed	1.5	8.5	10.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

WVU scoring against the PITT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WVU scored	7.0	1.5	8.5	8.5	10.5	19.0
PITT allowed	0.0	8.0	8.0	3.5	1.5	5.0

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.