South Florida @ Miami: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2025)

Sat, Sep 13, 2025, 4:30 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Miami

Weather at kickoff78°F1 mphgusts 9Wet0.1 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

South Florida

2-0 · Power #29

final

Final

Miami

2-0 · Power #6

▲ winner

Closing spread

MIA -17.5

✓ MIA W

Total

56.5

▲ Over · 61 pts

Model before kickoff

USF 20–38 MIA

✓ MIA (89%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIA -15.5

CloseMIA -17.5

Total54.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMIA -15.5

2 → MIA

CloseMIA -17.5

2 pts toward Miami

Total

Open54.5

▲ 2

Close56.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MIA -15.5 · closed MIA -17.5 · moved 2 toward MIAmodel MIA -17

model MIA -17

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 16.5–18.5 since 2023: won 91%, covered 49% (96 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 52% (159 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIA -15.5

CloseMIA -17.5

Total54.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MIA as a 17.5-point home favorite against USF, the favorite won 9, covered 5, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: MIA won 49–12; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 61 points went over 56.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 89%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 15.6 against an average line of 17.2; 60.8 points a game (usually 53.4). Of the 4 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	UCLA vs USA 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & situation	-15.5	32–31	L	O59
Close	PSU vs ILL 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-19.5	21–7	L	U48.5
Close	CIN vs IU 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & total	-16.5	45–24	W	O57
Close	WAKE vs LIB 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & rest	-17.5	37–36	L	O64
Close	MIA vs DUKE 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & total	-21	53–31	W	O55.5
Close	ORE vs ILL 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest	-22.5	38–9	W	U54
Close	OU vs TULN 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & situation	-13.5	34–19	W	O49
Close	OU vs WVU 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & total	-13	59–20	W	O59.5
Loose	SMU vs BYU 2024 · Week 2 · loose · similar total & rest	-12.5	15–18	L	U56
Loose	CLEM vs UVA 2024 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-20	48–31	L	O57.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USF WW	2-0	100%	1-0	2-0
MIA WL	1-1	50%	1-1	0-1

Venue/role: USF away, as underdog; MIA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USF UU	0-2	0%	2-0
MIA OU	1-1	50%	2-0

Went over in Q4. Of 398 earlier overs in games with totals 52.5–60.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USF	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
MIA	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

USF 0–1 MIA MIA leads · 1 game since 2023 · MIA has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 21 2024	Miami 50 @ South Florida 15	MIA -15.5	MIA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

USF−3.9 →+3.3▲ 7.2#57

MIA+18.0 →+16.6▼ 1.4#11

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

USF

Longer bar = better

MIA

#75

Offense

MIA better ▶

#29

#59

Defense

Even

#56

+2.0 #11

Turnovers

Even

+2.0 #7

59 plays #122

Pace

MIA faster ▶

67 plays #59

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USF has the ball

Even matchup

	USF off	MIA def	Edge
Points / game	26.0 #81	13.5 #40	MIA
Yards / play	6.47 #48	4.63 #57	Even
PPA / play	+0.20 #56	0.00 #54	Even
Success rate	36% #115	40% #73	MIA

When MIA has the ball

Advantage: MIA offense

	MIA off	USF def	Edge
Points / game	36.0 #44	11.5 #33	Even
Yards / play	6.58 #41	4.85 #68	MIA
PPA / play	+0.36 #23	−0.04 #42	Even
Success rate	60% #8	42% #94	MIA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 62 FBS teams

USF scoring against the MIA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USF scored	0.0	8.0	8.0	11.5	6.5	18.0
MIA allowed	0.0	5.0	5.0	0.0	8.5	8.5

MIA scoring against the USF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIA scored	7.0	14.0	21.0	7.0	8.0	15.0
USF allowed	5.0	3.0	8.0	0.0	3.5	3.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.