Liberty @ Bowling Green: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2025)

Sat, Sep 13, 2025, 5:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Bowling Green

Weather at kickoff77°F4 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

Liberty

1-1 · Power #104

final

Final

Bowling Green

1-1 · Power #120

▲ winner

Closing spread

LIB -6.5

✓ BGSU W

Total

51.5

▼ Under · 36 pts

Model before kickoff

LIB 27–22 BGSU

✗ LIB (65%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLIB -7.5

CloseLIB -6.5

Total51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLIB -7.5

1 → BGSU

CloseLIB -6.5

1 pt toward Bowling Green

Total

Open51.5

no move

Close51.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LIB -7.5 · closed LIB -6.5 · moved 1 toward BGSUmodel LIB -0.5

model LIB -0.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 56% (119 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 63% (41 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLIB -7.5

CloseLIB -6.5

Total51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LIB as a 6.5-point road favorite at BGSU, the favorite won 4, covered 2, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: BGSU won 23–13 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 36 points stayed under 51.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 68%

Favorite covered

2 of 922%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: underdog by 3 against an average line of 4.3; 52.4 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	JMU @ USU 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar situation & total	-5	45–38	W	O52.5
Very close	FRES @ NEV 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-3	24–21	P	U50
Very close	NEB @ RUTG 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & rest	-3	14–13	L	U50.5
Very close	LIB @ SHSU 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar season form & rest	-2.5	18–20	L	U47.5
Very close	MRSH @ CCU 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	6–34	L	U47
Very close	WIS @ PUR 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & rest	-6	38–17	W	O54
Close	USF @ RICE 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & total	-5.5	28–35	L	O54
Close	ORST @ NEV 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-3	37–42	L	O47
Close	OHIO @ NIU 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-5.5	13–23	L	U45
Close	LIB @ JXST 2025 · Week 2 · close · similar total & rest	-6.25	24–34	L	O50.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LIB LL	0-2	0%	0-1	0-2
BGSU LW	1-1	50%	0-1	1-0

Venue/role: LIB away, as favorite; BGSU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LIB UO	1-1	50%	1-1
BGSU UO	1-1	50%	1-1

Stayed under: it needed 32 in the 4th quarter and got 16. 54% of games with totals 47.5–55.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LIB	5-5 50%	2-8 20%	4-6 40%
BGSU	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

LIB 1–0 BGSU LIB leads · 1 game since 2023 · LIB has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 2 2023	Bowling Green 24 @ Liberty 34	LIB -12	BGSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LIB−5.7 →−3.7▲ 2.0#82

BGSU−4.2 →−6.4▼ 2.2#90

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

LIB

Longer bar = better

BGSU

#59

Offense

◀ LIB better

#98

#74

Defense

Even

#68

0.0 #73

Turnovers

BGSU better ▶

+0.5 #53

70 plays #44

Pace

◀ LIB faster

66 plays #69

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LIB has the ball

Even matchup

	LIB off	BGSU def	Edge
Points / game	26.0 #80	20.5 #72	Even
Yards / play	6.65 #36	5.50 #92	LIB
PPA / play	+0.18 #65	+0.05 #74	Even
Success rate	46% #56	34% #33	BGSU

When BGSU has the ball

Advantage: LIB defense

	BGSU off	LIB def	Edge
Points / game	23.0 #96	20.5 #71	LIB
Yards / play	4.83 #110	5.65 #97	Even
PPA / play	+0.06 #102	+0.06 #80	LIB
Success rate	41% #85	36% #49	LIB

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 64 FBS teams

LIB scoring against the BGSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LIB scored	3.5	5.0	8.5	0.0	17.5	17.5
BGSU allowed	3.5	7.0	10.5	8.5	1.5	10.0

BGSU scoring against the LIB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BGSU scored	3.5	6.5	10.0	6.5	6.5	13.0
LIB allowed	3.5	8.5	12.0	3.5	5.0	8.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.