Western Michigan @ Illinois: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2025)

Sat, Sep 13, 2025, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Illinois

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Western Michigan

0-2 · Power #80

final

Final

Illinois

2-0 · Power #30

▲ winner

Closing spread

ILL -27.5

✓ ILL W

Total

50.5

▼ Under · 38 pts

Model before kickoff

WMU 13–40 ILL

✓ ILL (97%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenILL -27.5

CloseILL -27.5

Total50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenILL -27.5

no move

CloseILL -27.5

No change since the open

Total

Open50.5

no move

Close50.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ILL -27.5 · unchangedmodel ILL -26.5

model ILL -26.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 26.5–28.5 since 2023: won 98%, covered 59% (58 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenILL -27.5

CloseILL -27.5

Total50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ILL as a 27.5-point home favorite against WMU, the favorite won 10, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: ILL won 38–0; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 38 points stayed under 50.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 95%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 55%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 57%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 28.6 against an average line of 26.6; 47.4 points a game (usually 55.3). Of the 4 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	IU vs CLT 2024 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & situation	-28.5	52–14	W	O50.5
Close	FRES vs NEV 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-24.5	27–9	L	U51.5
Close	IU vs PUR 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & spread	-28.5	66–0	W	O56.5
Close	JMU vs USM 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & total	-24	32–15	L	U54
Close	FRES vs KENT 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & rest	-27.5	53–10	W	O47.5
Close	UK vs NIU 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar situation & rest	-26.75	31–23	L	O53
Close	FLA vs CLT 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-28	22–7	L	U48.5
Close	ND vs M-OH 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-27.5	28–3	L	U44
Close	TULN vs TEM 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar total & spread	-25.5	52–6	W	O50.5
Close	PSU vs NU 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-25.5	17–7	L	U50

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WMU WW	2-0	100%	1-0	2-0
ILL WW	2-0	100%	1-0	2-0

Venue/role: WMU away, as underdog; ILL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WMU UO	1-1	50%	0-2
ILL UO	1-1	50%	2-0

Stayed under: it needed 27 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 54% of games with totals 46.5–54.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WMU	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
ILL	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WMU−10.1 →−13.3▼ 3.2#119

ILL+4.1 →+7.9▲ 3.8#35

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

WMU

Longer bar = better

ILL

#126

Offense

ILL better ▶

#29

#107

Defense

ILL better ▶

#65

+0.5 #49

Turnovers

ILL better ▶

+3.0 #2

64 plays #90

Pace

Even

66 plays #77

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WMU has the ball

Advantage: ILL defense

	WMU off	ILL def	Edge
Points / game	18.0 #112	11.0 #29	ILL
Yards / play	4.06 #129	5.09 #78	ILL
PPA / play	−0.15 #132	+0.03 #65	ILL
Success rate	31% #132	41% #86	ILL

When ILL has the ball

Advantage: ILL offense

	ILL off	WMU def	Edge
Points / game	48.5 #15	28.0 #107	ILL
Yards / play	6.51 #47	5.66 #98	ILL
PPA / play	+0.41 #15	+0.18 #109	ILL
Success rate	48% #40	46% #115	ILL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 74 FBS teams

WMU scoring against the ILL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WMU scored	0.0	8.5	8.5	3.5	4.5	8.0
ILL allowed	1.5	5.0	6.5	3.0	1.5	4.5

ILL scoring against the WMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ILL scored	10.5	12.0	22.5	10.5	15.5	26.0
WMU allowed	3.5	10.5	14.0	6.0	5.0	11.0

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.