Toledo @ Western Michigan: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2025)

Sat, Sep 20, 2025, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Western Michigan · Conference game

Weather at kickoff80°F7 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

Toledo

2-1 · Power #48

final

Final

Western Michigan

0-3 · Power #80

▲ winner

Closing spread

TOL -11.5

✓ WMU W

Total

48.5

▼ Under · 27 pts

Model before kickoff

TOL 31–19 WMU

✗ TOL (81%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTOL -13.5

CloseTOL -11.5

Total52.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTOL -13.5

2 → WMU

CloseTOL -11.5

2 pts toward Western Michigan

Total

Open52.5

▼ 4

Close48.5

Down 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TOL -13.5 · closed TOL -11.5 · moved 2 toward WMUmodel TOL -16

model TOL -16

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 10.5–12.5 since 2023: won 76%, covered 45% (41 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 49% (140 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTOL -13.5

CloseTOL -11.5

Total52.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TOL as an 11.5-point road favorite at WMU, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: WMU won 14–13 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 27 points stayed under 48.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 76%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 15.1 against an average line of 12.1; 53.9 points a game (usually 54.5). Of the 4 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	MRSH @ BGSU 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & total	-17	31–34	L	O50
Close	ARIZ @ ASU 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest	-12.5	59–23	W	O49.25
Close	TULN @ CLT 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar team ratings & rest	-14.5	34–3	W	U55
Close	NAVY @ RICE 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & total	-12.5	10–24	L	U49
Close	ARMY @ TEM 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & season form	-11	42–14	W	O47
Close	MEM @ CLT 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-10	44–38	L	O51.5
Close	UL @ ULM 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-9.5	17–21	L	U51
Close	TOL @ CMU 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar spread	-10	32–17	W	U54.5
Close	USA @ ARST 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & total	-9	31–3	W	U52
Close	DUKE @ MTSU 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & total	-14.5	45–17	W	O51

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TOL WWW	3-0	100%	1-0	2-0
WMU WWL	2-1	67%	1-0	2-1

Venue/role: TOL away, as favorite; WMU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TOL UOO	2-1	67%	2-1
WMU UOU	1-2	33%	0-3

Stayed under: it needed 30 in the 4th quarter and got 8. 54% of games with totals 44.5–52.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TOL	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
WMU	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

TOL 39–24 WMU TOL leads · 63 games since 1962 · WMU has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 23 2023	Western Michigan 31 @ Toledo 49	TOL -21.5	WMU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TOL−4.5 →+3.5▲ 8.0#57

WMU−10.1 →−13.3▼ 3.2#120

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

TOL

Longer bar = better

WMU

#48

Offense

◀ TOL better

#135

#31

Defense

◀ TOL better

#114

+0.7 #47

Turnovers

Even

+0.3 #55

72 plays #28

Pace

◀ TOL faster

62 plays #107

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TOL has the ball

Advantage: TOL offense

	TOL off	WMU def	Edge
Points / game	40.3 #30	31.3 #116	TOL
Yards / play	6.45 #41	5.67 #98	TOL
PPA / play	+0.22 #48	+0.21 #116	TOL
Success rate	43% #73	48% #126	TOL

When WMU has the ball

Advantage: TOL defense

	WMU off	TOL def	Edge
Points / game	12.0 #132	15.0 #36	TOL
Yards / play	3.89 #135	3.83 #14	TOL
PPA / play	−0.13 #136	−0.10 #20	TOL
Success rate	31% #137	38% #55	TOL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 123 FBS teams

TOL scoring against the WMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TOL scored	8.0 #40	18.3 #5	26.3 #12	7.0 #51	7.0 #58	14.0 #59
WMU allowed	3.3 #44	9.3 #95	12.7 #70	8.7 #112	8.0 #89	16.7 #114

WMU scoring against the TOL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WMU scored	0.0 #120	5.7 #95	5.7 #117	2.3 #105	3.0 #109	5.3 #118
TOL allowed	4.7 #62	1.0 #4	5.7 #17	0.0 #1	9.3 #108	9.3 #53

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.