NC State @ Duke: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2025)

Sat, Sep 20, 2025, 4:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Duke · Conference game

Weather at kickoff84°F7 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›

NC State

3-0 · Power #44

final

Final

Duke

1-2 · Power #47

▲ winner

Closing spread

DUKE -3.5

✓ DUKE W

Total

57.5

▲ Over · 78 pts

Model before kickoff

NCSU 27–30 DUKE

✓ DUKE (58%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenDUKE -2.5

CloseDUKE -3.5

Total58.5 → 57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenDUKE -2.5

1 → DUKE

CloseDUKE -3.5

1 pt toward Duke

Total

Open58.5

▼ 1

Close57.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened DUKE -2.5 · closed DUKE -3.5 · moved 1 toward DUKEmodel DUKE -0.5

model DUKE -0.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 59%, covered 49% (227 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 43% (74 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenDUKE -2.5

CloseDUKE -3.5

Total58.5 → 57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DUKE as a 3.5-point home favorite against NCSU, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: DUKE won 45–33; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 78 points went over 57.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.6 against an average line of 2.7; 58.4 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 6 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	KU vs TCU 2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & rest	-1.5	27–38	L	O58.5
Very close	WVU vs KU 2024 · Week 4 · very close · similar situation & rest	-1.5	32–28	W	O56
Very close	TROY vs WKU 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar total & spread	-3.5	27–24	L	U57
Very close	TTU vs UCF 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & rest	-2.5	24–23	L	U59.5
Very close	CAL vs WSU 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & total	-1.5	42–39	W	O59
Very close	COLO vs BAY 2024 · Week 4 · very close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	38–31	W	O52.5
Very close	TULN vs UTSA 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	29–16	W	U52.5
Very close	UCF vs WVU 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & rest	-6.5	28–41	L	O59
Close	ORST vs WSU 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar team ratings & rest	-3	24–10	W	U51.5
Close	PUR vs ILL 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & rest	-1	44–19	W	O53.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NCSU LWW	2-1	67%	1-0	—
DUKE –LL	0-2	0%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: NCSU away, as underdog; DUKE home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NCSU UOO	2-1	67%	3-0
DUKE OOO	3-0	100%	1-2

Went over in Q3. Of 389 earlier overs in games with totals 53.5–61.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NCSU	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
DUKE	5-5 50%	5-4 56%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

NCSU 0–2 DUKE DUKE leads · 2 games since 2023 · DUKE has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 9 2024	Duke 29 @ NC State 19	NCSU -3.5	DUKE W
Oct 14 2023	NC State 3 @ Duke 24	DUKE -3.5	DUKE W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NCSU+0.7 →+3.6▲ 2.9#55

DUKE+1.9 →+1.9–#64

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

NCSU

Longer bar = better

DUKE

#61

Offense

DUKE better ▶

#45

#79

Defense

◀ NCSU better

#97

+0.7 #36

Turnovers

◀ NCSU better

−2.0 #134

68 plays #50

Pace

◀ NCSU faster

66 plays #77

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NCSU has the ball

Advantage: NCSU offense

	NCSU off	DUKE def	Edge
Points / game	31.0 #64	32.0 #118	NCSU
Yards / play	6.10 #57	5.66 #96	NCSU
PPA / play	+0.21 #53	+0.20 #113	NCSU
Success rate	44% #69	38% #61	Even

When DUKE has the ball

Advantage: DUKE offense

	DUKE off	NCSU def	Edge
Points / game	30.3 #68	24.0 #83	Even
Yards / play	7.30 #17	6.01 #107	DUKE
PPA / play	+0.22 #50	+0.13 #93	DUKE
Success rate	47% #44	35% #33	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 127 FBS teams

NCSU scoring against the DUKE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NCSU scored	8.0 #40	8.0 #75	16.0 #64	11.7 #8	3.3 #111	15.0 #53
DUKE allowed	7.0 #96	9.0 #89	16.0 #97	7.0 #95	9.0 #103	16.0 #113

DUKE scoring against the NCSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DUKE scored	2.0 #118	8.7 #69	10.7 #100	9.0 #31	10.7 #21	19.7 #18
NCSU allowed	9.3 #115	9.0 #89	18.3 #112	2.3 #23	3.3 #28	5.7 #18

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.