California @ San Diego State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2025)

Sat, Sep 20, 2025, 10:30 PM EDTWeek 4 · at San Diego State

Weather at kickoff69°F4 mphgusts 10DryWeather watch ›

California

3-0 · Power #76

final

Final

San Diego State

1-1 · Power #68

▲ winner

Closing spread

CAL -13.5

✓ SDSU W

Total

45.5

▼ Under · 34 pts

Model before kickoff

CAL 29–16 SDSU

✗ CAL (83%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCAL -13.5

CloseCAL -13.5

Total49.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCAL -13.5

no move

CloseCAL -13.5

No change since the open

Total

Open49.5

▼ 4

Close45.5

Down 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CAL -13.5 · unchangedmodel CAL -13.5 matches the line

model CAL -13.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 12.5–14.5 since 2023: won 79%, covered 46% (61 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCAL -13.5

CloseCAL -13.5

Total49.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CAL as a 13.5-point road favorite at SDSU, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: SDSU won 34–0 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 34 points stayed under 45.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 79%

Favorite covered

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 12.7 against an average line of 13; 50.9 points a game (usually 54.1). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	AFA @ CSU 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar team ratings	-14.5	30–13	W	U47.5
Close	UK @ VAN 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & situation	-13.5	45–28	W	O50
Close	APP @ ULM 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & rest	-13.5	41–40	L	O51
Loose	MINN @ NEB 2022 · Week 10 · loose · similar total	-14.5	20–13	L	U44.5
Loose	UCLA @ SDSU 2023 · Week 2 · loose · similar spread & situation	-13.5	35–10	W	U49
Loose	LIB @ CONN 2022 · Week 11 · loose · similar spread & total	-13.5	33–36	L	O45
Loose	AFA @ NAVY 2023 · Week 8 · loose · similar team ratings	-11	17–6	P	U34
Loose	NAVY @ RICE 2024 · Week 10 · loose · similar spread	-12.5	10–24	L	U49
Loose	AFA @ UNLV 2022 · Week 7 · loose · similar total	-10	42–7	W	U50
Loose	PSU @ IU 2022 · Week 10 · loose · similar spread & rest	-13.5	45–14	W	O50

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CAL WLW	2-1	67%	1-0	1-1
SDSU –L	0-1	0%	—	0-1

Venue/role: CAL away, as favorite; SDSU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CAL OUO	2-1	67%	3-0
SDSU UO	1-1	50%	1-1

Stayed under: it needed 19 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 54% of games with totals 41.5–49.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CAL	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
SDSU	3-7 30%	3-6 33%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

CAL 1–0 SDSU CAL leads · 1 game since 2023 · CAL has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 14 2024	San Diego State 10 @ California 31	CAL -18.5	CAL W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CAL+3.8 →+3.2▼ 0.6#59

SDSU−12.0 →−11.5▲ 0.5#113

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

CAL

Longer bar = better

SDSU

#73

Offense

◀ CAL better

#105

#21

Defense

Even

#23

+1.0 #28

Turnovers

◀ CAL better

0.0 #62

66 plays #75

Pace

SDSU faster ▶

72 plays #27

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CAL has the ball

Advantage: SDSU defense

	CAL off	SDSU def	Edge
Points / game	32.0 #61	18.0 #41	Even
Yards / play	5.87 #67	3.75 #9	SDSU
PPA / play	+0.12 #81	−0.03 #29	SDSU
Success rate	42% #84	33% #13	SDSU

When SDSU has the ball

Advantage: CAL defense

	SDSU off	CAL def	Edge
Points / game	27.5 #80	10.7 #13	CAL
Yards / play	4.75 #126	4.47 #31	CAL
PPA / play	+0.04 #114	−0.12 #13	CAL
Success rate	40% #98	35% #26	CAL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 135 FBS teams

CAL scoring against the SDSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CAL scored	8.0 #45	4.7 #116	12.7 #93	9.3 #27	10.0 #32	19.3 #22
SDSU allowed	3.5	6.0	9.5	5.0	3.5	8.5

SDSU scoring against the CAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SDSU scored	10.5	3.0	13.5	7.0	7.0	14.0
CAL allowed	0.0 #1	3.3 #21	3.3 #10	4.3 #64	3.0 #22	7.3 #28

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.