San Diego State @ Northern Illinois: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2025)

Sat, Sep 27, 2025, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Northern Illinois

Weather at kickoff85°F11 mphgusts 25DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

San Diego State

2-1 · Power #68

▲ winner

Final

Northern Illinois

1-2 · Power #124

final

Closing spread

SDSU -1.5

✓ SDSU W

Total

42.5

▼ Under · 9 pts

Model before kickoff

SDSU 20–19 NIU

✓ SDSU (52%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSDSU -2.5

CloseSDSU -1.5

Total43.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenSDSU -2.5

1 → NIU

CloseSDSU -1.5

1 pt toward Northern Illinois

Total

Open43.5

▼ 1

Close42.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened SDSU -2.5 · closed SDSU -1.5 · moved 1 toward NIUmodel NIU -2

model NIU -2

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 53%, covered 50% (121 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 51% (203 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSDSU -2.5

CloseSDSU -1.5

Total43.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SDSU as a 1.5-point road favorite at NIU, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: SDSU won 6–3; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 9 points stayed under 42.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.6 against an average line of 2.9; 47.8 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	RICE @ CLT 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-1	28–7	W	U46.5
Close	FRES @ HAW 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	23–21	L	U47.5
Close	UL @ USM 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar total & spread	-2.5	24–39	L	O42.75
Close	NMSU @ UTEP 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-3	28–7	W	U49
Close	SJSU @ SDSU 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.25	27–43	L	O41
Close	ORST @ NEV 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-3	37–42	L	O47
Close	OHIO @ NIU 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & total	-5.5	13–23	L	U45
Close	LIB @ ODU 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	38–24	W	O47.5
Close	MINN @ UCLA 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	21–17	W	U39
Close	AFA @ SDSU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar total & rest	-2	13–3	W	U43.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SDSU –LW	1-1	50%	0-1	—
NIU LWL	1-2	33%	0-1	1-1

Venue/role: SDSU away, as favorite; NIU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SDSU UOU	1-2	33%	2-1
NIU UUU	0-3	0%	1-2

Stayed under: it needed 37 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 56% of games with totals 38.5–46.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SDSU	3-7 30%	3-6 33%	6-4 60%
NIU	5-5 50%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SDSU−12.0 →−7.4▲ 4.6#90

NIU−5.3 →−9.1▼ 3.8#104

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

SDSU

Longer bar = better

NIU

#98

Offense

◀ SDSU better

#134

#12

Defense

◀ SDSU better

#75

+1.0 #19

Turnovers

◀ SDSU better

0.0 #70

65 plays #80

Pace

Even

65 plays #90

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SDSU has the ball

Advantage: NIU defense

	SDSU off	NIU def	Edge
Points / game	29.7 #75	25.0 #80	Even
Yards / play	5.10 #112	5.37 #72	NIU
PPA / play	+0.06 #105	+0.06 #65	NIU
Success rate	40% #98	42% #81	Even

When NIU has the ball

Advantage: SDSU defense

	NIU off	SDSU def	Edge
Points / game	12.7 #136	12.0 #16	SDSU
Yards / play	4.25 #136	3.84 #10	SDSU
PPA / play	−0.03 #128	−0.14 #9	SDSU
Success rate	31% #137	32% #13	SDSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

SDSU scoring against the NIU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SDSU scored	7.0 #61	6.3 #102	13.3 #89	9.3 #30	7.0 #65	16.3 #42
NIU allowed	3.3 #47	5.7 #44	9.0 #43	4.3 #62	11.7 #132	16.0 #122

NIU scoring against the SDSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NIU scored	2.0 #127	4.3 #119	6.3 #128	2.0 #128	4.3 #108	6.3 #130
SDSU allowed	2.3 #30	4.0 #21	6.3 #21	3.3 #37	2.3 #11	5.7 #12

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.