Massachusetts @ Missouri: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2025)

Sat, Sep 27, 2025, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Missouri

Weather at kickoff73°F8 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›

Massachusetts

0-3 · Power #136

final

Final

Missouri

4-0 · Power #18

▲ winner

Closing spread

MIZ -44.5

✓ MASS W

Total

56.5

▼ Under · 48 pts

Model before kickoff

MASS 5–50 MIZ

✓ MIZ (100%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIZ -43.5

CloseMIZ -44.5

Total55.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMIZ -43.5

1 → MIZ

CloseMIZ -44.5

1 pt toward Missouri

Total

Open55.5

▲ 1

Close56.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MIZ -43.5 · closed MIZ -44.5 · moved 1 toward MIZmodel MIZ -46.5

model MIZ -46.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 42.5–46.5 since 2023: won 100%, covered 53% (40 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 52% (180 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIZ -43.5

CloseMIZ -44.5

Total55.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 8 games most like MIZ as a 44.5-point home favorite against MASS, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: MIZ won 42–6; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 1 of the 8 similar games. 48 points stayed under 56.5, as in 2 of 8.

Favorite won

8 of 8100%

Normal range · usually 100%

Favorite covered

6 of 786%

Normal range · usually 60%

Went over

6 of 875%

Normal range · usually 47%

Only 8 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 51.5 against an average line of 42.2; 61.5 points a game (usually 57.7). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 8 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	TENN vs UTEP 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & total	-41.5	56–0	W	O54
Close	TENN vs AKR 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar season form & situation	-47.5	63–6	W	O67
Loose	PSU vs MASS 2023 · Week 7 · loose · similar situation & team ratings	-42	63–0	W	O55
Loose	UGA vs BALL 2023 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & spread	-42	45–3	P	U52.5
Loose	UGA vs MASS 2024 · Week 13 · loose · similar situation & total	-42.5	59–21	L	O55.5
Loose	FSU vs KENT 2025 · Week 4 · loose · similar total & spread	-45	66–10	W	O56.5
Loose	TEX vs SHSU 2025 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & situation	-39.5	55–0	W	O51.5
Loose	OSU vs PUR 2024 · Week 11 · loose · similar total	-37.5	45–0	W	U55.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MASS LLL	0-3	0%	0-1	0-2
MIZ WWWL	3-1	75%	3-1	3-1

Venue/role: MASS away, as underdog; MIZ home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MASS OOO	3-0	100%	0-3
MIZ OOOO	4-0	100%	4-0

Stayed under: it needed 16 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 52% of games with totals 52.5–60.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MASS	1-9 10%	4-6 40%	8-2 80%
MIZ	8-2 80%	8-2 80%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

MASS 0–1 MIZ MIZ leads · 1 game since 2023 · MIZ has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 12 2024	Missouri 45 @ Massachusetts 3	MIZ -27.5	MIZ W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MASS−14.6 →−21.9▼ 7.3#135

MIZ+10.7 →+17.4▲ 6.7#12

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

MASS

Longer bar = better

MIZ

#120

Offense

MIZ better ▶

#15

#115

Defense

MIZ better ▶

#28

−0.3 #91

Turnovers

MIZ better ▶

0.0 #65

59 plays #127

Pace

MIZ faster ▶

79 plays #5

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MASS has the ball

Advantage: MIZ defense

	MASS off	MIZ def	Edge
Points / game	14.3 #133	16.8 #34	MIZ
Yards / play	4.38 #135	4.54 #32	MIZ
PPA / play	0.00 #122	0.00 #35	MIZ
Success rate	41% #91	31% #11	MIZ

When MIZ has the ball

Advantage: MIZ offense

	MIZ off	MASS def	Edge
Points / game	46.0 #10	38.7 #131	MIZ
Yards / play	7.02 #21	6.29 #120	MIZ
PPA / play	+0.35 #17	+0.25 #123	MIZ
Success rate	54% #10	42% #87	MIZ

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

MASS scoring against the MIZ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MASS scored	5.3 #89	7.0 #98	12.3 #96	1.0 #133	1.0 #135	2.0 #136
MIZ allowed	5.3 #82	6.0 #50	11.3 #63	2.3 #20	3.3 #18	5.5 #10

MIZ scoring against the MASS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIZ scored	7.3 #56	17.0 #5	24.3 #16	8.5 #36	13.3 #3	21.8 #7
MASS allowed	9.0 #122	13.7 #133	22.7 #131	8.0 #121	8.0 #103	16.0 #124

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.