Alabama @ Georgia: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2025)

Sat, Sep 27, 2025, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Georgia · Conference game

Weather at kickoff71°F2 mphDryWeather watch ›

Alabama

2-1 · Power #11

▲ winner

Final

Georgia

3-0 · Power #7

final

Closing spread

UGA -2.5

✓ ALA W

Total

52.5

▼ Under · 45 pts

Model before kickoff

ALA 26–29 UGA

✗ UGA (56%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUGA -3.5

CloseUGA -2.5

Total53.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUGA -3.5

1 → ALA

CloseUGA -2.5

1 pt toward Alabama

Total

Open53.5

▼ 1

Close52.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UGA -3.5 · closed UGA -2.5 · moved 1 toward ALAmodel UGA -1.5

model UGA -1.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 58%, covered 50% (243 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 44% (81 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUGA -3.5

CloseUGA -2.5

Total53.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UGA as a 2.5-point home favorite against ALA, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: ALA won 24–21 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 45 points stayed under 52.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

7 of 978%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 9.5 against an average line of 3.4; 52.3 points a game (usually 53). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	TENN vs TA&M 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & total	-3	20–13	W	U54.5
Close	MISS vs TA&M 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar total & spread	-3	38–35	P	O52.5
Close	ORST vs UCLA 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	36–24	W	O53.5
Close	ALA vs LSU 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & situation	-3	42–28	W	O60.5
Close	CLEM vs SC 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar spread & total	-2.5	14–17	L	U49
Close	TA&M vs MIZ 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar situation	-2.5	41–10	W	O47.5
Close	UCLA vs WSU 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	25–17	W	U60
Close	PSU vs SMU 2024 · Postseason · close · similar rest & total	-7.5	38–10	W	U52.5
Close	BAY vs OKST 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	25–36	L	O56
Close	MICH vs OSU 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & situation	-3	30–24	W	O47

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ALA LWW	2-1	67%	0-1	—
UGA LLL	0-3	0%	0-2	0-3

Venue/role: ALA away, as underdog; UGA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ALA OOO	3-0	100%	2-1
UGA OUO	2-1	67%	3-0

Stayed under: it needed 8 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 53% of games with totals 48.5–56.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ALA	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
UGA	8-2 80%	2-8 20%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

ALA 45–27 UGA (3 tied) ALA leads · 75 games since 1902 · UGA has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 28 2024	Georgia 34 @ Alabama 41	UGA -1.5	ALA W
Dec 2 2023	Georgia 24 @ Alabama 27	UGA -5.5	ALA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ALA+21.0 →+22.4▲ 1.4#3

UGA+21.0 →+20.7▼ 0.3#5

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

ALA

Longer bar = better

UGA

#18

Offense

◀ ALA better

#38

#39

Defense

Even

#45

+2.0 #3

Turnovers

◀ ALA better

−0.3 #95

64 plays #94

Pace

UGA faster ▶

80 plays #4

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ALA has the ball

Advantage: ALA offense

	ALA off	UGA def	Edge
Points / game	42.7 #19	18.0 #39	Even
Yards / play	7.14 #17	5.20 #62	ALA
PPA / play	+0.39 #12	−0.01 #34	ALA
Success rate	51% #23	38% #43	Even

When UGA has the ball

Even matchup

	UGA off	ALA def	Edge
Points / game	39.0 #30	15.0 #27	Even
Yards / play	5.90 #67	4.51 #30	ALA
PPA / play	+0.24 #41	+0.07 #69	UGA
Success rate	53% #13	36% #31	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

ALA scoring against the UGA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ALA scored	11.7 #11	11.7 #35	23.3 #19	9.0 #27	10.3 #22	19.3 #16
UGA allowed	7.0 #103	1.0 #4	8.0 #29	3.3 #38	5.7 #62	9.0 #41

UGA scoring against the ALA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UGA scored	9.3 #29	9.0 #62	18.3 #44	10.3 #10	8.3 #47	18.7 #20
ALA allowed	2.3 #27	3.3 #17	5.7 #16	4.7 #65	4.7 #45	9.3 #44

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.