Utah State @ Vanderbilt: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2025)

Sat, Sep 27, 2025, 12:45 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Vanderbilt

Weather at kickoff79°F4 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Utah State

3-1 · Power #86

final

Final

Vanderbilt

4-0 · Power #13

▲ winner

Closing spread

VAN -24.5

✓ USU W

Total

58.5

▲ Over · 90 pts

Model before kickoff

USU 18–43 VAN

✓ VAN (96%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenVAN -21.5

CloseVAN -24.5

Total59.5 → 58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenVAN -21.5

3 → VAN

CloseVAN -24.5

3 pts toward Vanderbilt

Total

Open59.5

▼ 1

Close58.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened VAN -21.5 · closed VAN -24.5 · moved 3 toward VANmodel VAN -23.5

model VAN -23.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 23.5–25.5 since 2023: won 96%, covered 53% (67 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 53% (171 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenVAN -21.5

CloseVAN -24.5

Total59.5 → 58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like VAN as a 24.5-point home favorite against USU, the favorite won 10, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: VAN won 55–35; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 90 points went over 58.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 93%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 44%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 53%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 29.7 against an average line of 25; 57.5 points a game (usually 54.5). Of the 4 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	ARK vs ARST 2025 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & situation	-24	56–14	W	O61.75
Close	CLEM vs STAN 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-24	40–14	W	U58
Loose	ORE vs COLO 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest	-21	42–6	W	U70
Loose	MIZ vs UL 2025 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & situation	-27.5	52–10	W	O47.5
Loose	ORE vs WSU 2023 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & total	-19.5	38–24	L	O60.5
Loose	ORE vs OKST 2025 · Week 2 · loose · similar rest & situation	-28.5	69–3	W	O55.5
Loose	PSU vs CMU 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & situation	-28	33–14	L	U61.5
Loose	AUB vs USA 2025 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & situation	-26.5	31–15	L	U56
Loose	USC vs ASU 2022 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & total	-24.5	42–25	L	O61
Loose	TENN vs MSST 2024 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & spread	-26.5	33–14	L	U61.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USU WWWW	4-0	100%	1-0	2-0
VAN WWWW	4-0	100%	2-0	2-0

Venue/role: USU away, as underdog; VAN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USU UOOU	2-2	50%	3-1
VAN UOUO	2-2	50%	4-0

Went over in Q3. Of 348 earlier overs in games with totals 54.5–62.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USU	6-4 60%	8-2 80%	7-3 70%
VAN	6-4 60%	8-2 80%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

USU 0–1 VAN VAN leads · 1 game since 2025 · VAN has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

USU−10.4 →−6.7▲ 3.7#85

VAN+3.1 →+12.0▲ 8.9#24

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

USU

Longer bar = better

VAN

#43

Offense

VAN better ▶

#76

Defense

VAN better ▶

#34

+0.5 #48

Turnovers

VAN better ▶

+1.3 #13

65 plays #93

Pace

◀ USU faster

63 plays #111

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USU has the ball

Even matchup

	USU off	VAN def	Edge
Points / game	36.8 #41	12.8 #18	VAN
Yards / play	6.63 #33	4.22 #22	Even
PPA / play	+0.25 #38	+0.03 #51	Even
Success rate	45% #59	38% #45	Even

When VAN has the ball

Advantage: VAN offense

	VAN off	USU def	Edge
Points / game	47.5 #8	24.3 #79	VAN
Yards / play	7.72 #12	5.02 #50	VAN
PPA / play	+0.59 #2	+0.10 #80	VAN
Success rate	63% #1	43% #93	VAN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

USU scoring against the VAN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USU scored	9.0 #33	9.5 #57	18.5 #44	12.8 #4	5.5 #94	18.3 #24
VAN allowed	5.0 #78	4.0 #21	9.0 #43	1.5 #11	2.3 #11	3.8 #5

VAN scoring against the USU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
VAN scored	10.5 #18	13.0 #26	23.5 #21	10.3 #18	13.8 #3	24.0 #4
USU allowed	4.3 #63	10.0 #114	14.3 #99	3.3 #35	6.8 #80	10.0 #51

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.