Vanderbilt @ Alabama: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2025)

Sat, Oct 4, 2025, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Alabama · Conference game

Weather at kickoff83°F8 mphgusts 19DryWeather watch ›

Vanderbilt

5-0 · Power #13

final

Final

Alabama

3-1 · Power #11

▲ winner

Closing spread

ALA -13.5

✓ ALA W

Total

58.5

▼ Under · 44 pts

Model before kickoff

VAN 21–34 ALA

✓ ALA (83%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenALA -11.5

CloseALA -13.5

Total56.5 → 58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenALA -11.5

2 → ALA

CloseALA -13.5

2 pts toward Alabama

Total

Open56.5

▲ 2

Close58.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ALA -11.5 · closed ALA -13.5 · moved 2 toward ALAmodel ALA -13.5 matches the line

model ALA -13.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 12.5–14.5 since 2023: won 84%, covered 49% (104 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 53% (178 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenALA -11.5

CloseALA -13.5

Total56.5 → 58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ALA as a 13.5-point home favorite against VAN, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: ALA won 30–14; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 44 points stayed under 58.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 79%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 13.8 against an average line of 12.8; 52.4 points a game (usually 54). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	NCST vs TTU 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar rest	-10.5	27–14	W	U55.75
Close	OKST vs ASU 2022 · Week 2 · close · similar spread & rest	-11.75	34–17	W	U58.25
Close	KU vs UNLV 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & total	-9.5	20–23	L	U57.5
Close	FSU vs DUKE 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-14	38–20	W	O49
Close	OSU vs MD 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar total & situation	-17	37–17	W	U57
Loose	UGA vs TENN 2022 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest & situation	-9.75	27–13	W	U65.5
Loose	OSU vs IU 2024 · Week 13 · loose · similar season form & situation	-10.5	38–15	W	O52.5
Loose	MIA vs USF 2025 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & total	-17.5	49–12	W	O56.5
Loose	CLEM vs SYR 2022 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & spread	-14	27–21	L	U50
Loose	OU vs KSU 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & situation	-13.5	34–41	L	O53

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
VAN WWWWL	4-1	80%	2-0	2-0
ALA LWWW	3-1	75%	2-0	2-1

Venue/role: VAN away, as underdog; ALA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
VAN UOUOO	3-2	60%	5-0
ALA OOOU	3-1	75%	3-1

Stayed under: it needed 25 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 49% of games with totals 54.5–62.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
VAN	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%
ALA	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

VAN 19–64 ALA (4 tied) ALA leads · 87 games since 1903 · ALA has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 5 2024	Alabama 35 @ Vanderbilt 40	ALA -22.5	VAN W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

VAN+3.1 →+13.0▲ 9.9#21

ALA+21.0 →+23.0▲ 2.0#3

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

VAN

Longer bar = better

ALA

Offense

◀ VAN better

#29

#39

Defense

Even

#46

+1.0 #17

Turnovers

ALA better ▶

+1.8 #2

63 plays #111

Pace

ALA faster ▶

68 plays #53

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When VAN has the ball

Advantage: VAN offense

	VAN off	ALA def	Edge
Points / game	49.0 #4	16.5 #28	VAN
Yards / play	7.85 #4	5.05 #50	VAN
PPA / play	+0.60 #1	+0.07 #69	VAN
Success rate	63% #1	38% #38	VAN

When ALA has the ball

Even matchup

	ALA off	VAN def	Edge
Points / game	38.0 #26	17.2 #31	Even
Yards / play	6.57 #33	4.65 #28	Even
PPA / play	+0.33 #17	+0.06 #63	ALA
Success rate	47% #39	38% #32	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

VAN scoring against the ALA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
VAN scored	9.8 #19	15.2 #11	25.0 #11	11.6 #4	12.4 #5	24.0 #1
ALA allowed	1.8 #15	6.0 #50	7.8 #24	5.3 #73	3.5 #22	8.8 #38

ALA scoring against the VAN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ALA scored	10.5 #14	13.0 #25	23.5 #18	6.8 #58	7.8 #57	14.5 #58
VAN allowed	5.4 #81	6.0 #50	11.4 #62	1.2 #7	4.6 #37	5.8 #10

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.