LSU @ Vanderbilt: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2025)

Sat, Oct 18, 2025, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Vanderbilt · Conference game

Weather at kickoff82°F8 mphgusts 19DryWeather watch ›

LSU

5-1 · Power #31

final

Final

Vanderbilt

5-1 · Power #13

▲ winner

Closing spread

VAN -1.5

✓ VAN W

Total

48.5

▲ Over · 55 pts

Model before kickoff

LSU 26–27 VAN

✓ VAN (54%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenVAN -2.5

CloseVAN -1.5

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenVAN -2.5

1 → LSU

CloseVAN -1.5

1 pt toward LSU

Total

Open48.5

no move

Close48.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened VAN -2.5 · closed VAN -1.5 · moved 1 toward LSUmodel VAN -1

model VAN -1

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 51%, covered 48% (161 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 49% (235 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenVAN -2.5

CloseVAN -1.5

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like VAN as a 1.5-point home favorite against LSU, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: VAN won 31–24; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 55 points went over 48.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

7 of 978%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 52%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 11.2 against an average line of 2.9; 50 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 6 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MISS vs TA&M 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & season form	-3	38–35	P	O52.5
Very close	ORST vs UCLA 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	36–24	W	O53.5
Very close	UK vs FLA 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & situation	-1.5	33–14	W	O45
Close	BYU vs ARIZ 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	41–19	W	O48.5
Close	CLEM vs SC 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar total & spread	-2.5	14–17	L	U49
Close	LOU vs DUKE 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & total	-5	23–0	W	U47
Close	ASU vs KU 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	35–31	W	O50
Close	BAY vs KSU 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	3–31	L	U52.25
Close	UNLV vs FRES 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	59–14	W	O50.5
Close	SYR vs NCST 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & season form	-3	24–9	W	U42.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LSU LWLLW	3-3	50%	1-1	1-1
VAN WWWLL	4-2	67%	2-1	2-1

Venue/role: LSU away, as underdog; VAN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LSU UUOUU	1-5	17%	5-1
VAN OUOOU	3-3	50%	5-1

Went over in Q3. Of 490 earlier overs in games with totals 44.5–52.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LSU	8-2 80%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%
VAN	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

LSU 1–0 VAN LSU leads · 1 game since 2023 · LSU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 23 2024	Vanderbilt 17 @ LSU 24	LSU -9.5	VAN W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LSU+15.7 →+14.3▼ 1.4#17

VAN+3.1 →+12.8▲ 9.7#22

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

LSU

Longer bar = better

VAN

#81

Offense

VAN better ▶

#18

Defense

◀ LSU better

#56

+0.3 #54

Turnovers

VAN better ▶

+0.7 #32

66 plays #81

Pace

◀ LSU faster

62 plays #124

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LSU has the ball

Advantage: VAN defense

	LSU off	VAN def	Edge
Points / game	25.8 #87	19.3 #36	VAN
Yards / play	5.69 #76	5.09 #42	VAN
PPA / play	+0.12 #84	+0.13 #86	Even
Success rate	43% #76	41% #59	Even

When VAN has the ball

Even matchup

	VAN off	LSU def	Edge
Points / game	43.2 #7	11.8 #5	Even
Yards / play	7.60 #5	4.57 #19	Even
PPA / play	+0.50 #1	−0.05 #19	Even
Success rate	60% #1	38% #27	VAN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

LSU scoring against the VAN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LSU scored	4.0 #109	9.0 #67	13.0 #90	6.8 #53	6.0 #81	12.8 #72
VAN allowed	4.5 #59	7.3 #74	11.8 #67	2.0 #13	5.5 #49	7.5 #17

VAN scoring against the LSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
VAN scored	9.3 #19	13.8 #6	23.2 #9	9.7 #12	10.3 #17	20.0 #10
LSU allowed	2.7 #25	4.7 #19	7.3 #15	1.7 #6	2.8 #8	4.5 #5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.