Tennessee @ Alabama: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2025)

Sat, Oct 18, 2025, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Alabama · Conference game

Weather at kickoff82°F10 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

Tennessee

5-1 · Power #22

final

Final

Alabama

5-1 · Power #11

▲ winner

Closing spread

ALA -8.5

✓ ALA W

Total

60.5

▼ Under · 57 pts

Model before kickoff

TENN 24–33 ALA

✓ ALA (74%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenALA -8.5

CloseALA -8.5

Total58.5 → 60.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenALA -8.5

no move

CloseALA -8.5

No change since the open

Total

Open58.5

▲ 2

Close60.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ALA -8.5 · unchangedmodel ALA -11.5

model ALA -11.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 7.5–9.5 since 2023: won 72%, covered 50% (136 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenALA -8.5

CloseALA -8.5

Total58.5 → 60.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ALA as an 8.5-point home favorite against TENN, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 1 went over the total.

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This game: ALA won 37–20; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 57 points stayed under 60.5, as in 8 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

1 of 911%

Below normal · usually 52%

Overs below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 11.9 against an average line of 8.4; 46.1 points a game (usually 53.7). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TEX vs TCU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	10–17	L	U65.75
Very close	KSU vs TCU 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & situation	-5.5	41–3	W	U60
Very close	KSU vs OKST 2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & situation	-6	42–20	W	O58
Close	KSU vs KU 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & situation	-10	29–27	L	P56
Close	KSU vs ARIZ 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar total & rest	-7	31–7	W	U61
Close	PSU vs MD 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-10.5	30–0	W	U56.5
Close	WASH vs RUTG 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & spread	-9.5	38–19	W	U62.5
Close	CLEM vs LOU 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar season form & total	-11	21–33	L	U62.5
Close	NCST vs TTU 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & spread	-10.5	27–14	W	U55.75
Close	FSU vs WAKE 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-6	21–31	L	U67.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TENN WWLLL	3-3	50%	0-1	1-0
ALA WWWWL	4-2	67%	3-0	3-2

Venue/role: TENN away, as underdog; ALA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TENN OOOOU	5-1	83%	5-1
ALA OOUUO	4-2	67%	5-1

Stayed under: it needed 18 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 46% of games with totals 56.5–64.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TENN	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	9-1 90%
ALA	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

TENN 1–1 ALA Series tied · 2 games since 2023 · TENN has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 19 2024	Alabama 17 @ Tennessee 24	ALA -3.5	TENN W
Oct 21 2023	Tennessee 20 @ Alabama 34	ALA -8.5	ALA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TENN+17.7 →+15.1▼ 2.6#15

ALA+21.0 →+22.6▲ 1.6#4

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

TENN

Longer bar = better

ALA

Offense

◀ TENN better

#33

#77

Defense

ALA better ▶

#47

+0.3 #51

Turnovers

ALA better ▶

+1.5 #3

75 plays #10

Pace

◀ TENN faster

69 plays #40

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TENN has the ball

Advantage: TENN offense

	TENN off	ALA def	Edge
Points / game	48.2 #1	17.3 #22	TENN
Yards / play	7.07 #15	5.36 #58	TENN
PPA / play	+0.38 #4	+0.07 #54	TENN
Success rate	52% #10	40% #54	TENN

When ALA has the ball

Advantage: ALA offense

	ALA off	TENN def	Edge
Points / game	34.8 #34	29.3 #109	ALA
Yards / play	6.25 #42	5.10 #44	Even
PPA / play	+0.29 #18	+0.07 #61	ALA
Success rate	46% #39	43% #93	ALA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

TENN scoring against the ALA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TENN scored	16.7 #1	12.7 #13	29.3 #1	9.2 #19	8.0 #49	17.2 #27
ALA allowed	3.5 #35	5.7 #37	9.2 #29	4.7 #56	3.5 #17	8.2 #20

ALA scoring against the TENN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ALA scored	8.2 #35	12.7 #13	20.8 #18	6.0 #69	8.0 #49	14.0 #56
TENN allowed	4.0 #42	9.2 #105	13.2 #75	6.0 #90	9.2 #127	15.2 #124

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.