Arkansas @ Tennessee: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2025)

Sat, Oct 11, 2025, 4:15 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Tennessee · Conference game

Weather at kickoff72°F7 mphgusts 19DryWeather watch ›

Arkansas

2-3 · Power #40

final

Final

Tennessee

4-1 · Power #22

▲ winner

Closing spread

TENN -10.5

✓ ARK W

Total

68.5

▼ Under · 65 pts

Model before kickoff

ARK 28–38 TENN

✓ TENN (77%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTENN -12.5

CloseTENN -10.5

Total69.5 → 68.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTENN -12.5

2 → ARK

CloseTENN -10.5

2 pts toward Arkansas

Total

Open69.5

▼ 1

Close68.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TENN -12.5 · closed TENN -10.5 · moved 2 toward ARKmodel TENN -10.5 matches the line

model TENN -10.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 9.5–11.5 since 2023: won 75%, covered 42% (114 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 50% (160 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTENN -12.5

CloseTENN -10.5

Total69.5 → 68.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TENN as a 10.5-point home favorite against ARK, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: TENN won 34–31; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 65 points stayed under 68.5, as in 8 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 75%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

2 of 1020%

Below normal · usually 52%

Overs below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 8.4 against an average line of 10.3; 58.4 points a game (usually 54.2). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	TCU vs TTU 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar total & spread	-8.5	34–24	W	U68.75
Close	CLEM vs LOU 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & season form	-11	21–33	L	U62.5
Close	TENN vs UK 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & spread	-10.5	44–6	W	U62.5
Close	ORE vs UCLA 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & rest	-7	45–30	W	O70.75
Close	TEX vs WVU 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar situation	-7.5	38–20	W	U61
Close	UCF vs COLO 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & spread	-12.5	21–48	L	O60.5
Close	FSU vs WAKE 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & season form	-6	21–31	L	U67.5
Close	USC vs FRES 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar spread	-11.75	45–17	W	U71.5
Close	TENN vs SC 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar situation	-12.5	41–20	W	U63
Loose	WASH vs WSU 2023 · Week 13 · loose · similar season form & situation	-15.5	24–21	L	U65.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ARK LWLLL	1-4	20%	0-2	0-2
TENN WWWLL	3-2	60%	2-1	2-2

Venue/role: ARK away, as underdog; TENN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ARK UOOOO	4-1	80%	2-3
TENN OOOOO	5-0	100%	4-1

Stayed under: it needed 25 in the 4th quarter and got 21. 44% of games with totals 64.5–72.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ARK	4-6 40%	3-7 30%	7-3 70%
TENN	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	9-1 90%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

ARK 7–15 TENN TENN leads · 22 games since 1907 · TENN has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 5 2024	Tennessee 14 @ Arkansas 19	TENN -14.5	ARK W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ARK+8.7 →+9.3▲ 0.6#31

TENN+17.7 →+15.8▼ 1.9#15

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

ARK

Longer bar = better

TENN

#11

Offense

Even

#124

Defense

TENN better ▶

#61

−0.4 #101

Turnovers

TENN better ▶

−0.2 #83

67 plays #65

Pace

TENN faster ▶

77 plays #7

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ARK has the ball

Advantage: ARK offense

	ARK off	TENN def	Edge
Points / game	37.4 #24	29.0 #104	ARK
Yards / play	7.70 #5	4.82 #30	ARK
PPA / play	+0.38 #7	+0.03 #39	ARK
Success rate	54% #6	42% #72	ARK

When TENN has the ball

Advantage: TENN offense

	TENN off	ARK def	Edge
Points / game	51.0 #1	30.0 #113	TENN
Yards / play	7.00 #18	6.12 #116	TENN
PPA / play	+0.39 #6	+0.30 #132	TENN
Success rate	52% #11	49% #133	TENN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

ARK scoring against the TENN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARK scored	11.0 #9	16.0 #1	27.0 #3	6.2 #63	4.2 #114	10.4 #102
TENN allowed	2.8 #29	9.6 #109	12.4 #75	7.2 #111	8.2 #106	15.4 #123

TENN scoring against the ARK defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TENN scored	18.6 #1	13.2 #15	31.8 #1	9.0 #23	8.2 #46	17.2 #27
ARK allowed	9.0 #122	13.2 #136	22.2 #133	4.6 #60	3.2 #14	7.8 #21

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.