Notre Dame @ Arkansas: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2025)

Sat, Sep 27, 2025, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Arkansas

Weather at kickoff75°F1 mphgusts 7DryWeather watch ›

Notre Dame

1-2 · Power #3

▲ winner

Final

Arkansas

2-2 · Power #40

final

Closing spread

ND -5.5

✓ ND W

Total

62.5

▲ Over · 69 pts

Model before kickoff

ND 33–28 ARK

✓ ND (64%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenND -6.5

CloseND -5.5

Total58.5 → 62.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenND -6.5

1 → ARK

CloseND -5.5

1 pt toward Arkansas

Total

Open58.5

▲ 4

Close62.5

Up 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ND -6.5 · closed ND -5.5 · moved 1 toward ARKmodel ND -3.5

model ND -3.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 59%, covered 50% (107 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 51% (199 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenND -6.5

CloseND -5.5

Total58.5 → 62.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ND as a 5.5-point road favorite at ARK, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: ND won 56–13; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 69 points went over 62.5, as in 8 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 63%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 1.4 against an average line of 3.7; 75.8 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LSU @ MISS 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3	49–55	L	O67
Close	LSU @ MIZ 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-6	49–39	W	O63.5
Close	ORE @ WSU 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	44–41	L	O57.25
Close	OU @ TTU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest	-1.5	48–51	L	O65.5
Close	WAKE @ LOU 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & total	-3	21–48	L	O66.25
Close	CLEM @ VT 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & rest	-5.5	24–14	W	U54.5
Close	WAKE @ DUKE 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & season form	-3	31–34	L	U67.5
Close	KSU @ WVU 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	45–18	W	O56
Close	WVU @ PITT 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & season form	-2	34–38	L	O61.5
Close	GT @ UNC 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & total	-3.5	41–34	W	O60.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ND LLW	1-2	33%	0-1	1-2
ARK LWLL	1-3	25%	1-1	0-1

Venue/role: ND away, as favorite; ARK home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ND OOO	3-0	100%	1-2
ARK UOOO	3-1	75%	2-2

Went over in Q4. Of 176 earlier overs in games with totals 58.5–66.5, 27% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ND	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%
ARK	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ND+21.6 →+18.3▼ 3.3#11

ARK+8.7 →+12.1▲ 3.4#23

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

Longer bar = better

ARK

#32

Offense

ARK better ▶

#111

Defense

ARK better ▶

#97

−0.3 #90

Turnovers

ARK better ▶

0.0 #71

64 plays #97

Pace

ARK faster ▶

68 plays #52

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ND has the ball

Advantage: ND offense

	ND off	ARK def	Edge
Points / game	40.0 #26	23.5 #75	ND
Yards / play	6.66 #32	5.40 #75	ND
PPA / play	+0.25 #37	+0.20 #115	ND
Success rate	49% #31	46% #123	ND

When ARK has the ball

Advantage: ARK offense

	ARK off	ND def	Edge
Points / game	43.5 #16	32.7 #119	ARK
Yards / play	8.12 #5	5.88 #98	ARK
PPA / play	+0.42 #5	+0.24 #122	ARK
Success rate	55% #8	44% #105	ARK

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

ND scoring against the ARK defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ND scored	9.3 #27	12.7 #29	22.0 #27	9.3 #27	8.7 #46	18.0 #29
ARK allowed	7.8 #110	9.5 #108	17.3 #113	4.0 #49	2.3 #11	6.3 #23

ARK scoring against the ND defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARK scored	13.0 #10	17.5 #5	30.5 #4	7.8 #50	5.3 #95	13.0 #76
ND allowed	4.7 #74	17.0 #136	21.7 #131	3.3 #40	7.7 #90	11.0 #67

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.