Auburn @ Texas A&M: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2025)

Sat, Sep 27, 2025, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Texas A&M · Conference game

Weather at kickoff88°F6 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›

Auburn

3-1 · Power #24

final

Final

Texas A&M

3-0 · Power #10

▲ winner

Closing spread

TA&M -6.5

✓ AUB W

Total

51.5

▼ Under · 26 pts

Model before kickoff

AUB 23–29 TA&M

✓ TA&M (68%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTA&M -6.5

CloseTA&M -6.5

Total46.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTA&M -6.5

no move

CloseTA&M -6.5

No change since the open

Total

Open46.5

▲ 5

Close51.5

Up 5 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TA&M -6.5 · unchangedmodel TA&M -6

model TA&M -6

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 70%, covered 58% (174 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTA&M -6.5

CloseTA&M -6.5

Total46.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TA&M as a 6.5-point home favorite against AUB, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: TA&M won 16–10; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 26 points stayed under 51.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 67%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 14 against an average line of 7; 53.2 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	KSU vs ASU 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	14–24	L	U51.5
Close	KSU vs OKST 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & spread	-6	42–20	W	O58
Close	KSU vs CIN 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & situation	-7.5	41–15	W	O54.5
Close	UNC vs DUKE 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar season form & situation	-10	47–45	L	O53
Close	KSU vs TCU 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & spread	-5.5	41–3	W	U60
Close	CLEM vs LOU 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & season form	-7	31–16	W	U52
Close	LOU vs DUKE 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & situation	-5	23–0	W	U47
Close	FLA vs UK 2022 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & spread	-6	16–26	L	U52.75
Close	ARK vs SC 2022 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & spread	-9	44–30	W	O56.25
Close	LSU vs OU 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar spread & situation	-6	37–17	W	O48

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
AUB WLLL	1-3	25%	1-1	1-1
TA&M LLW	1-2	33%	0-2	0-2

Venue/role: AUB away, as underdog; TA&M home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
AUB OUUU	1-3	25%	3-1
TA&M OOO	3-0	100%	3-0

Stayed under: it needed 36 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 55% of games with totals 47.5–55.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
AUB	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%
TA&M	6-4 60%	2-8 20%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

AUB 7–9 TA&M TA&M leads · 16 games since 1911 · TA&M has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 23 2024	Texas A&M 41 @ Auburn 43	TA&M -2.5	AUB W
Sep 23 2023	Auburn 10 @ Texas A&M 27	TA&M -10	TA&M W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

AUB+11.0 →+13.3▲ 2.3#21

TA&M+14.3 →+16.4▲ 2.1#15

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

AUB

Longer bar = better

TA&M

#51

Offense

TA&M better ▶

#31

#38

Defense

◀ AUB better

#65

+0.8 #35

Turnovers

◀ AUB better

0.0 #79

67 plays #69

Pace

TA&M faster ▶

69 plays #45

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When AUB has the ball

Even matchup

	AUB off	TA&M def	Edge
Points / game	32.0 #59	28.7 #104	AUB
Yards / play	5.75 #73	5.16 #56	Even
PPA / play	+0.25 #34	+0.08 #74	AUB
Success rate	48% #39	36% #27	Even

When TA&M has the ball

Even matchup

	TA&M off	AUB def	Edge
Points / game	42.3 #20	16.5 #32	Even
Yards / play	6.96 #23	4.64 #36	Even
PPA / play	+0.28 #28	+0.05 #61	TA&M
Success rate	46% #51	34% #23	AUB

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

AUB scoring against the TA&M defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
AUB scored	7.8 #47	11.3 #40	19.0 #40	6.0 #72	7.0 #65	13.0 #74
TA&M allowed	7.7 #109	5.7 #44	13.3 #89	7.3 #113	8.0 #100	15.3 #117

TA&M scoring against the AUB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TA&M scored	8.0 #44	18.3 #2	26.3 #10	8.0 #46	8.0 #53	16.0 #45
AUB allowed	2.3 #27	5.0 #32	7.3 #26	4.8 #67	4.5 #44	9.3 #46

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.