Indiana @ Iowa: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2025)

Sat, Sep 27, 2025, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Iowa · Conference game

Weather at kickoff84°F10 mphgusts 23DryWeather watch ›

Indiana

4-0 · Power #1

▲ winner

Final

Iowa

3-1 · Power #20

final

Closing spread

IU -8.5

✓ IOWA W

Total

47.5

▼ Under · 35 pts

Model before kickoff

IU 28–20 IOWA

✓ IU (73%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenIU -3.5

CloseIU -8.5

Total48.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenIU -3.5

5 → IU

CloseIU -8.5

5 pts toward Indiana

Total

Open48.5

▼ 1

Close47.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened IU -3.5 · closed IU -8.5 · moved 5 toward IUmodel IU -8.5 matches the line

model IU -8.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 7.5–9.5 since 2023: won 73%, covered 55% (78 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 62% (53 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenIU -3.5

CloseIU -8.5

Total48.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like IU as an 8.5-point road favorite at IOWA, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: IU won 20–15; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 35 points stayed under 47.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 17.4 against an average line of 8.2; 51.6 points a game (usually 53.7). Of the 4 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ORE @ UTAH 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & situation	-6.5	35–6	W	U47.5
Close	MINN @ MSU 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & total	-3	34–7	W	U50
Close	MISS @ ARK 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & situation	-8	63–31	W	O54
Loose	PITT @ WVU 2025 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & spread	-7	24–31	L	P55
Loose	MISS @ SC 2024 · Week 6 · loose · similar situation & team ratings	-10	27–3	W	U53
Loose	MICH @ IOWA 2022 · Week 5 · loose · similar situation & rest	-10.5	27–14	W	U42
Loose	ALA @ WIS 2024 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & season form	-15.5	42–10	W	O47.5
Loose	LSU @ AUB 2022 · Week 5 · loose · similar situation & rest	-8	21–17	L	U44.5
Loose	ND @ CLEM 2023 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest & total	-3	23–31	L	O44.5
Loose	ALA @ UK 2023 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & situation	-10.5	49–21	W	O46.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
IU LW–W	2-1	67%	—	2-1
IOWA LWWW	3-1	75%	1-1	1-0

Venue/role: IU away, as favorite; IOWA home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
IU UOOO	3-1	75%	4-0
IOWA UUOO	2-2	50%	3-1

Stayed under: it needed 28 in the 4th quarter and got 15. 54% of games with totals 43.5–51.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
IU	8-2 80%	5-4 56%	6-4 60%
IOWA	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

IU+13.4 →+19.0▲ 5.6#8

IOWA+7.8 →+8.4▲ 0.6#35

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

Longer bar = better

IOWA

Offense

◀ IU better

#63

#14

Defense

◀ IU better

#37

+1.3 #16

Turnovers

◀ IU better

0.0 #69

74 plays #13

Pace

◀ IU faster

65 plays #88

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When IU has the ball

Advantage: IU offense

	IU off	IOWA def	Edge
Points / game	54.8 #2	14.5 #24	IU
Yards / play	7.98 #8	4.19 #20	Even
PPA / play	+0.42 #7	+0.05 #60	IU
Success rate	58% #5	38% #42	IU

When IOWA has the ball

Advantage: IU defense

	IOWA off	IU def	Edge
Points / game	33.0 #54	8.3 #5	IU
Yards / play	5.22 #109	4.24 #24	IU
PPA / play	+0.20 #57	−0.07 #20	IU
Success rate	49% #32	28% #5	IU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

IU scoring against the IOWA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IU scored	14.0 #4	15.5 #14	29.5 #4	16.5 #1	8.8 #40	25.3 #2
IOWA allowed	5.0 #79	7.0 #70	12.0 #72	0.0 #1	2.5 #15	2.5 #1

IOWA scoring against the IU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IOWA scored	9.3 #31	10.3 #51	19.5 #37	5.0 #94	8.5 #44	13.5 #71
IU allowed	3.5 #52	2.3 #12	5.8 #16	0.8 #5	1.8 #6	2.5 #1

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.