Ohio State @ Washington: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2025)

Sat, Sep 27, 2025, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Washington · Conference game

Weather at kickoff65°F2 mphgusts 9DryWeather watch ›

Ohio State

3-0 · Power #2

▲ winner

Final

Washington

3-0 · Power #15

final

Closing spread

OSU -9.5

✓ OSU W

Total

52.5

▼ Under · 30 pts

Model before kickoff

OSU 32–23 WASH

✓ OSU (74%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenOSU -13.5

CloseOSU -9.5

Total48.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenOSU -13.5

4 → WASH

CloseOSU -9.5

4 pts toward Washington

Total

Open48.5

▲ 4

Close52.5

Up 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened OSU -13.5 · closed OSU -9.5 · moved 4 toward WASHmodel OSU -7

model OSU -7

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 8.5–10.5 since 2023: won 72%, covered 48% (65 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the underdog: that team covered 50% (42 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenOSU -13.5

CloseOSU -9.5

Total48.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 5 games most like OSU as a 9.5-point road favorite at WASH, the favorite won 4, covered 2, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: OSU won 24–6; the favorite covered, as in 2 of the 5 similar games. 30 points stayed under 52.5, as in 3 of 5.

Favorite won

4 of 580%

Normal range · usually 74%

Favorite covered

2 of 450%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

2 of 540%

Normal range · usually 52%

Only 5 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 7.2 against an average line of 5.3; 54 points a game (usually 54.2). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 5 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	ND @ DUKE 2023 · Week 5 · loose · similar situation	-5.5	21–14	W	U52.5
Loose	OSU @ ND 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar season form	-3	17–14	P	U55.5
Loose	ND @ LOU 2023 · Week 6 · loose · similar situation & total	-6	20–33	L	U54
Loose	UGA @ TENN 2025 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation	-3.5	44–41	L	O50.5
Loose	PSU @ MD 2023 · Week 10 · loose · similar situation & spread	-8.5	51–15	W	O50.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
OSU WWL	2-1	67%	—	2-1
WASH LWW	2-1	67%	1-1	—

Venue/role: OSU away, as favorite; WASH home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
OSU UOU	1-2	33%	3-0
WASH OOO	3-0	100%	3-0

Stayed under: it needed 33 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 53% of games with totals 48.5–56.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OSU	9-1 90%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%
WASH	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

OSU+26.4 →+24.4▼ 2.0#1

WASH+8.0 →+14.1▲ 6.1#19

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

OSU

Longer bar = better

WASH

#22

Offense

WASH better ▶

Defense

◀ OSU better

#39

+0.7 #43

Turnovers

WASH better ▶

+1.3 #12

61 plays #119

Pace

WASH faster ▶

68 plays #56

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When OSU has the ball

Even matchup

	OSU off	WASH def	Edge
Points / game	40.3 #24	18.3 #40	Even
Yards / play	7.79 #11	4.45 #28	Even
PPA / play	+0.25 #39	0.00 #37	Even
Success rate	53% #12	39% #50	OSU

When WASH has the ball

Even matchup

	WASH off	OSU def	Edge
Points / game	55.7 #1	5.3 #1	Even
Yards / play	7.92 #9	3.86 #11	Even
PPA / play	+0.49 #4	−0.23 #7	Even
Success rate	56% #6	33% #18	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

OSU scoring against the WASH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OSU scored	8.0 #44	10.3 #48	18.3 #45	10.3 #14	11.7 #11	22.0 #6
WASH allowed	3.3 #47	8.0 #86	11.3 #63	7.0 #103	0.0 #1	7.0 #25

WASH scoring against the OSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WASH scored	11.7 #13	15.0 #16	26.7 #9	11.7 #6	17.3 #1	29.0 #1
OSU allowed	0.0 #1	1.0 #5	1.0 #2	2.0 #21	2.3 #11	4.3 #6

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.