TCU @ Arizona State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2025)

Fri, Sep 26, 2025, 9:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Arizona State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff73°F8 mphgusts 24Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

TCU

3-0 · Power #33

final

Final

Arizona State

3-1 · Power #41

▲ winner

Closing spread

ASU -2.5

✓ ASU W

Total

54.5

▼ Under · 51 pts

Model before kickoff

TCU 27–30 ASU

✓ ASU (58%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenASU -1.5

CloseASU -2.5

Total56.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenASU -1.5

1 → ASU

CloseASU -2.5

1 pt toward Arizona State

Total

Open56.5

▼ 2

Close54.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ASU -1.5 · closed ASU -2.5 · moved 1 toward ASUmodel ASU -4

model ASU -4

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 57%, covered 50% (238 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 51% (172 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenASU -1.5

CloseASU -2.5

Total56.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ASU as a 2.5-point home favorite against TCU, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: ASU won 27–24; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 51 points stayed under 54.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.9 against an average line of 2.2; 50.7 points a game (usually 53). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WISC vs PUR 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & rest	-1.5	35–24	W	O51.5
Very close	NCST vs FSU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	19–17	L	U50.5
Very close	ISU vs KSU 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-2	29–21	W	U51.5
Very close	KU vs TCU 2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & rest	-1.5	27–38	L	O58.5
Very close	MIZ vs ARK 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3	28–21	W	U51
Very close	KSU vs OKST 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	48–0	W	U57.5
Very close	BAY vs KSU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & total	-2.5	3–31	L	U52.25
Very close	UK vs MIZ 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2	21–38	L	O50.5
Very close	TA&M vs LSU 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & situation	-2	38–23	W	O54.5
Very close	UCF vs CIN 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & spread	-1.5	25–21	W	U55.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TCU WLW	2-1	67%	1-0	—
ASU LLWW	2-2	50%	1-1	1-2

Venue/role: TCU away, as underdog; ASU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TCU OOU	2-1	67%	3-0
ASU OUUU	1-3	25%	3-1

Stayed under: it needed 14 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 52% of games with totals 50.5–58.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TCU	9-1 90%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%
ASU	8-2 80%	8-2 80%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TCU+7.9 →+11.5▲ 3.6#26

ASU+11.1 →+11.3▲ 0.2#28

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

TCU

Longer bar = better

ASU

#21

Offense

◀ TCU better

#68

#82

Defense

ASU better ▶

#63

+0.7 #41

Turnovers

Even

+0.8 #30

70 plays #38

Pace

Even

71 plays #30

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TCU has the ball

Advantage: TCU offense

	TCU off	ASU def	Edge
Points / game	41.7 #23	20.5 #57	TCU
Yards / play	7.41 #15	4.88 #46	TCU
PPA / play	+0.39 #14	+0.04 #52	TCU
Success rate	49% #30	43% #97	TCU

When ASU has the ball

Even matchup

	ASU off	TCU def	Edge
Points / game	29.8 #73	19.7 #49	TCU
Yards / play	5.76 #71	5.60 #87	Even
PPA / play	+0.18 #61	+0.18 #109	ASU
Success rate	44% #67	42% #83	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

TCU scoring against the ASU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TCU scored	9.3 #27	11.3 #40	20.7 #32	11.7 #8	9.3 #36	21.0 #11
ASU allowed	4.0 #62	5.0 #37	9.0 #46	3.3 #36	8.3 #102	11.5 #76

ASU scoring against the TCU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ASU scored	5.0 #94	7.5 #89	12.5 #95	9.5 #26	7.8 #59	17.3 #34
TCU allowed	3.3 #49	2.3 #15	5.7 #17	7.7 #114	6.3 #75	14.0 #106

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.