Colorado @ TCU: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2025)

Sat, Oct 4, 2025, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 6 · at TCU · Conference game

Weather at kickoff84°F8 mphgusts 21DryWeather watch ›

Colorado

2-3 · Power #75

final

Final

TCU

3-1 · Power #33

▲ winner

Closing spread

TCU -14.5

✓ COLO W

Total

56.5

▼ Under · 56 pts

Model before kickoff

COLO 20–35 TCU

✓ TCU (84%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTCU -14.5

CloseTCU -14.5

Total59.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTCU -14.5

no move

CloseTCU -14.5

No change since the open

Total

Open59.5

▼ 3

Close56.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TCU -14.5 · unchangedmodel TCU -13

model TCU -13

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 13.5–15.5 since 2023: won 89%, covered 55% (106 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTCU -14.5

CloseTCU -14.5

Total59.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TCU as a 14.5-point home favorite against COLO, the favorite won 9, covered 6, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: TCU won 35–21; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 56 points stayed under 56.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 83%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 19.2 against an average line of 14.4; 61.8 points a game (usually 53.7). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	SMU vs CAL 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & season form	-12.5	38–6	W	U54.5
Very close	MIZ vs FLA 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & total	-12.5	33–31	L	O56.5
Very close	TEX vs UTSA 2022 · Week 3 · very close · similar rest & total	-13	41–20	W	O57
Very close	PUR vs NEB 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & rest	-14	43–37	L	O56
Very close	LSU vs UAB 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-15.25	41–10	W	O50.5
Very close	ISU vs TTU 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & total	-13.5	22–23	L	U55.5
Very close	LOU vs BC 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & rest	-14	56–28	W	O53.5
Very close	FSU vs SYR 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & rest	-18.5	41–3	W	U53
Very close	CLEM vs GT 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-15.5	42–21	W	O55
Very close	MISS vs AUB 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & spread	-15.5	48–34	L	O55

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
COLO LWLWW	3-2	60%	0-1	1-2
TCU WLWL	2-2	50%	1-1	2-1

Venue/role: COLO away, as underdog; TCU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
COLO UUOOU	2-3	40%	2-3
TCU OOUU	2-2	50%	3-1

Stayed under: it needed 29 in the 4th quarter and got 28. 51% of games with totals 52.5–60.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
COLO	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
TCU	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

COLO 1–2 TCU TCU leads · 3 games since 2022 · TCU has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 2 2023	Colorado 45 @ TCU 42	TCU -20	COLO W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

COLO+9.6 →+1.6▼ 8.0#66

TCU+7.9 →+10.5▲ 2.6#29

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

COLO

Longer bar = better

TCU

#77

Offense

TCU better ▶

#31

#87

Defense

Even

#80

+0.2 #62

Turnovers

Even

0.0 #73

60 plays #127

Pace

TCU faster ▶

67 plays #65

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When COLO has the ball

Even matchup

	COLO off	TCU def	Edge
Points / game	25.8 #86	21.5 #56	TCU
Yards / play	5.97 #63	5.72 #93	COLO
PPA / play	+0.15 #67	+0.16 #97	COLO
Success rate	42% #90	41% #72	Even

When TCU has the ball

Advantage: TCU offense

	TCU off	COLO def	Edge
Points / game	37.3 #30	22.8 #64	TCU
Yards / play	6.81 #26	5.90 #104	TCU
PPA / play	+0.31 #21	+0.10 #76	TCU
Success rate	46% #46	44% #102	TCU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

COLO scoring against the TCU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
COLO scored	5.6 #83	9.6 #51	15.2 #68	4.8 #90	5.8 #89	10.6 #99
TCU allowed	2.5 #22	5.3 #41	7.8 #23	6.5 #103	7.3 #91	13.8 #106

TCU scoring against the COLO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TCU scored	8.8 #30	11.0 #35	19.8 #35	10.5 #8	7.0 #64	17.5 #23
COLO allowed	2.6 #23	7.2 #75	9.8 #45	6.8 #105	6.2 #67	13.0 #90

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.