TCU @ Kansas State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2025)

Sat, Oct 11, 2025, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Kansas State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff81°F13 mphgusts 27DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

TCU

4-1 · Power #33

final

Final

Kansas State

2-4 · Power #42

▲ winner

Closing spread

TCU -2.5

✓ KSU W

Total

54.5

▲ Over · 69 pts

Model before kickoff

TCU 29–26 KSU

✗ TCU (57%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTCU -1.5

CloseTCU -2.5

Total57.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTCU -1.5

1 → TCU

CloseTCU -2.5

1 pt toward TCU

Total

Open57.5

▼ 3

Close54.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TCU -1.5 · closed TCU -2.5 · moved 1 toward TCUmodel TCU -3

model TCU -3

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 56%, covered 47% (195 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 50% (192 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTCU -1.5

CloseTCU -2.5

Total57.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TCU as a 2.5-point road favorite at KSU, the favorite won 4, covered 2, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: KSU won 41–28 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 8 of the 10 similar games. 69 points went over 54.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 2.3 against an average line of 3.2; 49.5 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	DUKE @ CAL 2025 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	45–21	W	O54.5
Very close	KU @ OKST 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3	32–39	L	O54
Very close	LSU @ ARK 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & season form	-5.25	13–10	L	U59
Very close	UCF @ WVU 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-3	21–31	L	U60.5
Very close	TCU @ CIN 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	20–13	W	U58.5
Very close	TTU @ BYU 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3	14–27	L	U50
Close	UCLA @ ARIZ 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	10–27	L	U49.5
Close	VT @ SYR 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar season form & rest	-3.5	31–38	L	O53.5
Close	CIN @ SMU 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	29–27	L	U59.5
Close	USC @ WASH 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & season form	-2	21–26	L	U55

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TCU WLWLL	2-3	40%	1-1	2-2
KSU LLLWW	2-4	33%	1-2	1-0

Venue/role: TCU away, as favorite; KSU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TCU OOUUU	2-3	40%	4-1
KSU OUUOO	3-3	50%	2-4

Went over in Q4. Of 487 earlier overs in games with totals 50.5–58.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TCU	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
KSU	4-6 40%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

TCU 0–1 KSU KSU leads · 1 game since 2023 · KSU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 21 2023	TCU 3 @ Kansas State 41	KSU -5.5	KSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TCU+7.9 →+10.3▲ 2.4#29

KSU+9.4 →+5.1▼ 4.3#49

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

TCU

Longer bar = better

KSU

#33

Offense

◀ TCU better

#83

#74

Defense

Even

#64

+0.8 #29

Turnovers

◀ TCU better

+0.5 #46

67 plays #59

Pace

◀ TCU faster

63 plays #115

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TCU has the ball

Advantage: TCU offense

	TCU off	KSU def	Edge
Points / game	36.8 #29	26.8 #93	TCU
Yards / play	6.53 #33	5.25 #54	TCU
PPA / play	+0.29 #24	+0.11 #78	TCU
Success rate	46% #46	38% #32	Even

When KSU has the ball

Even matchup

	KSU off	TCU def	Edge
Points / game	27.5 #78	21.4 #59	Even
Yards / play	5.90 #66	5.64 #86	Even
PPA / play	+0.09 #93	+0.14 #94	Even
Success rate	41% #93	40% #57	TCU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

TCU scoring against the KSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TCU scored	7.0 #53	11.6 #31	18.6 #37	8.4 #33	9.8 #23	18.2 #18
KSU allowed	4.0 #47	8.7 #98	12.7 #76	4.5 #57	9.7 #132	14.2 #112

KSU scoring against the TCU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KSU scored	3.8 #114	8.5 #78	12.3 #98	10.7 #5	4.5 #107	15.2 #43
TCU allowed	2.0 #15	7.0 #67	9.0 #33	5.2 #79	7.2 #86	12.4 #88

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.