UCF @ Cincinnati: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2025)

Sat, Oct 11, 2025, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Cincinnati · Conference game

Weather at kickoff64°F2 mphgusts 10DryWeather watch ›

UCF

3-2 · Power #66

final

Final

Cincinnati

4-1 · Power #58

▲ winner

Closing spread

CIN -10.5

✓ UCF W

Total

55.5

▼ Under · 31 pts

Model before kickoff

UCF 22–32 CIN

✓ CIN (75%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCIN -10.5

CloseCIN -10.5

Total56.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCIN -10.5

no move

CloseCIN -10.5

No change since the open

Total

Open56.5

▼ 1

Close55.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CIN -10.5 · unchangedmodel CIN -6

model CIN -6

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 9.5–11.5 since 2023: won 76%, covered 42% (111 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCIN -10.5

CloseCIN -10.5

Total56.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CIN as a 10.5-point home favorite against UCF, the favorite won 9, covered 7, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: CIN won 20–11; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 31 points stayed under 55.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 75%

Favorite covered

7 of 978%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 52%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 14.4 against an average line of 10.2; 48 points a game (usually 54.2). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	KU vs BYU 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & total	-9.5	38–27	W	O54.5
Very close	LOU vs PITT 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & total	-7.5	37–9	W	U57.5
Very close	GT vs DUKE 2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & team ratings	-10	24–14	P	U52.5
Very close	KU vs WVU 2025 · Week 4 · very close · similar season form & total	-12.5	41–10	W	U54.5
Very close	KSU vs KU 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-10	29–27	L	P56
Very close	KSU vs TTU 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & total	-7.5	37–28	W	O56
Very close	VT vs GT 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & rest	-11	21–6	W	U52
Very close	PSU vs MD 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & total	-10.5	30–0	W	U56.5
Very close	SMU vs CAL 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & season form	-12.5	38–6	W	U54.5
Very close	MSST vs TOL 2024 · Week 3 · very close · similar rest & total	-10.5	17–41	L	O57.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UCF LWWLL	2-3	40%	0-1	0-2
CIN WL–WW	3-1	75%	1-1	1-1

Venue/role: UCF away, as underdog; CIN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UCF UOUOU	2-3	40%	3-2
CIN UOOOO	4-1	80%	4-1

Stayed under: it needed 36 in the 4th quarter and got 11. 51% of games with totals 51.5–59.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UCF	4-6 40%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%
CIN	4-6 40%	3-6 33%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

UCF 1–1 CIN Series tied · 2 games since 2023 · CIN has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 12 2024	Cincinnati 19 @ UCF 13	UCF -2.5	CIN W
Nov 4 2023	UCF 28 @ Cincinnati 26	UCF -3.5	CIN W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UCF+6.8 →+4.2▼ 2.6#56

CIN+3.5 →+6.9▲ 3.4#41

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

UCF

Longer bar = better

CIN

#61

Offense

CIN better ▶

#40

Defense

◀ UCF better

#87

+0.4 #48

Turnovers

◀ UCF better

−0.4 #103

65 plays #85

Pace

◀ UCF faster

59 plays #132

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UCF has the ball

Advantage: UCF offense

	UCF off	CIN def	Edge
Points / game	31.8 #54	20.8 #48	Even
Yards / play	6.50 #36	5.57 #77	UCF
PPA / play	+0.19 #48	+0.18 #110	UCF
Success rate	40% #105	45% #113	Even

When CIN has the ball

Advantage: CIN offense

	CIN off	UCF def	Edge
Points / game	39.2 #18	17.4 #28	Even
Yards / play	8.05 #2	4.82 #29	CIN
PPA / play	+0.40 #5	+0.04 #42	CIN
Success rate	53% #9	40% #59	CIN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

UCF scoring against the CIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UCF scored	9.0 #23	8.4 #79	17.4 #50	6.8 #52	7.6 #59	14.4 #56
CIN allowed	1.4 #7	7.4 #75	8.8 #32	5.6 #84	6.4 #73	12.0 #80

CIN scoring against the UCF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CIN scored	13.8 #3	12.4 #29	26.2 #5	6.8 #52	6.2 #81	13.0 #72
UCF allowed	0.0 #1	6.8 #59	6.8 #16	7.2 #110	3.4 #20	10.6 #55

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.