Iowa State @ Cincinnati: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2025)

Sat, Oct 4, 2025, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Cincinnati · Conference game

Weather at kickoff78°F2 mphgusts 9DryWeather watch ›

Iowa State

5-0 · Power #36

final

Final

Cincinnati

3-1 · Power #58

▲ winner

Closing spread

CIN -1.5

✓ CIN W

Total

55.5

▲ Over · 68 pts

Model before kickoff

ISU 26–27 CIN

✓ CIN (54%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCIN -1.5

CloseCIN -1.5

Total51.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCIN -1.5

no move

CloseCIN -1.5

No change since the open

Total

Open51.5

▲ 4

Close55.5

Up 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CIN -1.5 · unchangedmodel CIN -1

model CIN -1

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 50%, covered 47% (156 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCIN -1.5

CloseCIN -1.5

Total51.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CIN as a 1.5-point home favorite against ISU, the favorite won 7, covered 7, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: CIN won 38–30; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 68 points went over 55.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4 against an average line of 2.1; 53.6 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TTU vs KSU 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & spread	-1	21–38	L	O57.5
Very close	WKU vs UAB 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-1.25	20–17	W	U60.5
Very close	TULN vs UCF 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-1	31–38	L	O54.5
Very close	UNC vs MIA 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	41–31	W	O57
Very close	TULN vs ECU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	24–9	W	U55.5
Close	UCF vs CIN 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-1.5	25–21	W	U55.5
Close	ORST vs UCLA 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	36–24	W	O53.5
Close	ORE vs BYU 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	41–20	W	O58
Close	BAY vs OKST 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	25–36	L	O56
Close	UVA vs BC 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & spread	-2	24–14	W	U52.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ISU WWLLW	3-2	60%	0-1	1-0
CIN WL–W	2-1	67%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: ISU away, as underdog; CIN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ISU UOUUO	2-3	40%	5-0
CIN UOOO	3-1	75%	3-1

Went over in Q4. Of 456 earlier overs in games with totals 51.5–59.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ISU	9-1 90%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
CIN	4-6 40%	3-6 33%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

ISU 2–0 CIN ISU leads · 2 games since 2023 · ISU has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 16 2024	Cincinnati 17 @ Iowa State 34	ISU -7.5	ISU W
Oct 14 2023	Iowa State 30 @ Cincinnati 10	CIN -3.5	ISU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ISU+7.6 →+8.3▲ 0.7#34

CIN+3.5 →+6.3▲ 2.8#42

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

ISU

Longer bar = better

CIN

#49

Offense

CIN better ▶

#33

Defense

◀ ISU better

#89

+0.6 #40

Turnovers

◀ ISU better

−0.3 #91

65 plays #89

Pace

◀ ISU faster

60 plays #129

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ISU has the ball

Advantage: ISU offense

	ISU off	CIN def	Edge
Points / game	31.6 #57	18.5 #36	CIN
Yards / play	5.92 #66	5.58 #81	Even
PPA / play	+0.26 #29	+0.21 #115	ISU
Success rate	46% #44	48% #123	ISU

When CIN has the ball

Advantage: CIN offense

	CIN off	ISU def	Edge
Points / game	39.5 #16	14.2 #18	Even
Yards / play	8.06 #3	4.90 #40	CIN
PPA / play	+0.43 #4	−0.06 #21	Even
Success rate	55% #5	39% #52	CIN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

ISU scoring against the CIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ISU scored	8.8 #29	8.4 #80	17.2 #55	7.0 #54	7.4 #65	14.4 #60
CIN allowed	1.8 #15	5.5 #46	7.3 #21	5.3 #72	6.0 #65	11.3 #68

CIN scoring against the ISU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CIN scored	13.0 #5	12.0 #29	25.0 #10	8.5 #36	6.0 #87	14.5 #57
ISU allowed	1.4 #12	6.8 #67	8.2 #33	2.6 #29	3.4 #20	6.0 #11

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.