Cincinnati @ Kansas: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2025)

Sat, Sep 27, 2025, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Kansas · Conference game

Weather at kickoff74°F6 mphgusts 14DryWeather watch ›

Cincinnati

2-1 · Power #58

▲ winner

Final

Kansas

3-1 · Power #54

final

Closing spread

KU -4.5

✓ CIN W

Total

57.5

▲ Over · 71 pts

Model before kickoff

CIN 24–29 KU

✗ KU (64%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenKU -5.5

CloseKU -4.5

Total54.5 → 57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenKU -5.5

1 → CIN

CloseKU -4.5

1 pt toward Cincinnati

Total

Open54.5

▲ 3

Close57.5

Up 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened KU -5.5 · closed KU -4.5 · moved 1 toward CINmodel KU -6.5

model KU -6.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 52% (159 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 51% (199 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenKU -5.5

CloseKU -4.5

Total54.5 → 57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like KU as a 4.5-point home favorite against CIN, the favorite won 8, covered 8, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: CIN won 37–34 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 71 points went over 57.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 12.3 against an average line of 3.9; 51.1 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BAY vs OKST 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	25–36	L	O56
Very close	UNC vs MIA 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & season form	-2.5	41–31	W	O57
Close	ORST vs UCLA 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	36–24	W	O53.5
Close	UCLA vs WSU 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	25–17	W	U60
Close	WKU vs UAB 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & total	-1.25	20–17	W	U60.5
Close	UL vs USA 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	22–24	L	U60
Close	KSU vs OKST 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar total & situation	-6	42–20	W	O58
Close	KSU vs TCU 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & total	-5.5	41–3	W	U60
Close	TULN vs ECU 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	24–9	W	U55.5
Close	PITT vs SYR 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & spread	-5	41–13	W	U62.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CIN WL–	1-1	50%	—	1-0
KU WLLW	2-2	50%	2-1	2-1

Venue/role: CIN away, as underdog; KU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CIN UOO	2-1	67%	2-1
KU UUOU	1-3	25%	3-1

Went over in Q4. Of 394 earlier overs in games with totals 53.5–61.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CIN	4-6 40%	3-6 33%	5-5 50%
KU	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

CIN 0–1 KU KU leads · 1 game since 2023 · KU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 25 2023	Kansas 49 @ Cincinnati 16	KU -7.5	KU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CIN+3.5 →+5.5▲ 2.0#44

KU+6.8 →+8.5▲ 1.7#34

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

CIN

Longer bar = better

#11

Offense

◀ CIN better

#26

#54

Defense

Even

#45

−0.7 #109

Turnovers

KU better ▶

+0.8 #32

52 plays #136

Pace

KU faster ▶

63 plays #106

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CIN has the ball

Advantage: CIN offense

	CIN off	KU def	Edge
Points / game	40.3 #25	16.5 #31	Even
Yards / play	8.38 #2	4.84 #44	CIN
PPA / play	+0.41 #9	+0.09 #78	CIN
Success rate	56% #7	36% #28	CIN

When KU has the ball

Advantage: KU offense

	KU off	CIN def	Edge
Points / game	37.3 #36	13.3 #19	Even
Yards / play	6.57 #36	4.13 #18	Even
PPA / play	+0.35 #16	+0.08 #71	KU
Success rate	52% #17	45% #107	KU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

CIN scoring against the KU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CIN scored	15.0 #4	11.7 #38	26.7 #10	8.0 #45	5.7 #92	13.7 #70
KU allowed	3.3 #43	6.3 #59	9.5 #50	1.8 #14	5.3 #62	7.0 #26

KU scoring against the CIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KU scored	14.0 #5	9.5 #58	23.5 #21	8.5 #38	5.3 #95	13.8 #66
CIN allowed	0.0 #1	5.3 #41	5.3 #16	2.3 #23	5.7 #66	8.0 #32

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.