BYU @ Colorado: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2025)

Sat, Sep 27, 2025, 10:15 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Colorado · Conference game

Weather at kickoff61°F5 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›

BYU

3-0 · Power #19

▲ winner

Final

Colorado

2-2 · Power #75

final

Closing spread

BYU -6.5

✓ COLO W

Total

48.5

▼ Under · 45 pts

Model before kickoff

BYU 28–21 COLO

✓ BYU (68%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBYU -6.5

CloseBYU -6.5

Total47.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBYU -6.5

no move

CloseBYU -6.5

No change since the open

Total

Open47.5

▲ 1

Close48.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BYU -6.5 · unchangedmodel BYU -7.5

model BYU -7.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 55% (129 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBYU -6.5

CloseBYU -6.5

Total47.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BYU as a 6.5-point road favorite at COLO, the favorite won 9, covered 7, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: BYU won 24–21; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 45 points stayed under 48.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 67%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 14.3 against an average line of 5.9; 53.9 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	KSU @ MIZ 2023 · Week 3 · very close · similar rest & total	-3.5	27–30	L	O48.5
Very close	LSU @ AUB 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & situation	-8	21–17	L	U44.5
Very close	IU @ MSU 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	47–10	W	O53.5
Close	MD @ MSU 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	31–9	W	U52.5
Close	ORST @ CAL 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & rest	-7.5	52–40	W	O51
Close	ND @ NCSU 2023 · Week 2 · close · similar spread & rest	-7	45–24	W	O49.5
Close	ND @ USC 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & spread	-7	49–35	W	O52.5
Close	LOU @ NCSU 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	13–10	L	U55.5
Close	MEM @ TROY 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & total	-4.5	28–7	W	U51.5
Close	ISU @ WVU 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-3	28–16	W	U54

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BYU WWW	3-0	100%	1-0	3-0
COLO LWLW	2-2	50%	2-1	0-2

Venue/role: BYU away, as favorite; COLO home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BYU OUU	1-2	33%	3-0
COLO UUOO	2-2	50%	2-2

Stayed under: it needed 11 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 54% of games with totals 44.5–52.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BYU	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
COLO	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

BYU 1–0 COLO BYU leads · 1 game since 2023 · BYU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 28 2024	BYU 36 @ Colorado 14	COLO -2.5	BYU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BYU+7.8 →+11.6▲ 3.8#25

COLO+9.6 →+2.0▼ 7.6#63

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

BYU

Longer bar = better

COLO

#26

Offense

◀ BYU better

#77

Defense

◀ BYU better

#81

+1.7 #4

Turnovers

◀ BYU better

+0.5 #44

65 plays #93

Pace

◀ BYU faster

62 plays #119

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BYU has the ball

Advantage: BYU offense

	BYU off	COLO def	Edge
Points / game	43.3 #13	22.5 #59	BYU
Yards / play	6.99 #21	5.89 #105	BYU
PPA / play	+0.31 #21	+0.07 #67	BYU
Success rate	46% #47	43% #93	BYU

When COLO has the ball

Advantage: BYU defense

	COLO off	BYU def	Edge
Points / game	27.0 #78	5.3 #1	BYU
Yards / play	6.07 #56	3.48 #1	BYU
PPA / play	+0.17 #62	−0.25 #4	BYU
Success rate	39% #112	33% #9	BYU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

BYU scoring against the COLO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BYU scored	7.7 #47	17.7 #2	25.3 #9	7.7 #50	10.3 #23	18.0 #21
COLO allowed	2.5 #28	7.3 #78	9.8 #46	6.8 #102	6.0 #64	12.8 #92

COLO scoring against the BYU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
COLO scored	3.5 #114	12.0 #29	15.5 #68	4.3 #103	7.3 #64	11.5 #89
BYU allowed	1.0 #11	0.0 #1	1.0 #2	1.0 #7	3.3 #20	4.3 #7

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.