Louisiana Tech @ UTEP: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2025)

Sat, Sep 27, 2025, 9:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at UTEP · Conference game

Weather at kickoff81°F4 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

Louisiana Tech

3-1 · Power #93

▲ winner

Final

UTEP

1-3 · Power #131

final

Closing spread

LT -3.5

✓ LT W

Total

47.5

▼ Under · 41 pts

Model before kickoff

LT 24–22 UTEP

✓ LT (57%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLT -3.5

CloseLT -3.5

Total48.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLT -3.5

no move

CloseLT -3.5

No change since the open

Total

Open48.5

▼ 1

Close47.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LT -3.5 · unchangedmodel UTEP -1.5

model UTEP -1.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 57%, covered 48% (165 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLT -3.5

CloseLT -3.5

Total48.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LT as a 3.5-point road favorite at UTEP, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: LT won 30–11; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 41 points stayed under 47.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 2.7 against an average line of 3.2; 51.3 points a game (usually 53). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NMSU @ UTEP 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3	28–7	W	U49
Very close	FRES @ HAW 2025 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & total	-2.5	23–21	L	U47.5
Very close	UL @ USM 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	24–39	L	O42.75
Very close	LIB @ ODU 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & total	-3.5	38–24	W	O47.5
Very close	RICE @ CLT 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & total	-1	28–7	W	U46.5
Very close	FRES @ NEV 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3	24–21	P	U50
Very close	FAU @ MTSU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-5.5	21–49	L	O51
Very close	ORST @ NEV 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & total	-3	37–42	L	O47
Very close	BGSU @ WMU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	34–10	W	U51.5
Very close	OHIO @ NIU 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & total	-5.5	13–23	L	U45

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LT WWWW	4-0	100%	1-0	3-0
UTEP LWWL	2-2	50%	1-1	1-1

Venue/role: LT away, as favorite; UTEP home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LT UUOU	1-3	25%	3-1
UTEP UOUO	2-2	50%	1-3

Stayed under: it needed 38 in the 4th quarter and got 31. 54% of games with totals 43.5–51.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LT	5-5 50%	9-1 90%	3-7 30%
UTEP	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

LT 2–0 UTEP LT leads · 2 games since 2023 · LT has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 22 2024	UTEP 10 @ Louisiana Tech 14	LT -6.5	UTEP W
Sep 29 2023	Louisiana Tech 24 @ UTEP 10	LT -2	LT W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LT−11.6 →−8.8▲ 2.8#102

UTEP−15.9 →−12.2▲ 3.7#117

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

Longer bar = better

UTEP

#90

Offense

◀ LT better

#107

#33

Defense

◀ LT better

#65

+1.8 #1

Turnovers

◀ LT better

−1.0 #124

63 plays #115

Pace

UTEP faster ▶

66 plays #78

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LT has the ball

Advantage: UTEP defense

	LT off	UTEP def	Edge
Points / game	27.5 #77	25.8 #82	Even
Yards / play	5.32 #102	5.35 #67	UTEP
PPA / play	+0.15 #70	+0.04 #52	Even
Success rate	39% #109	40% #60	UTEP

When UTEP has the ball

Advantage: LT defense

	UTEP off	LT def	Edge
Points / game	23.3 #96	14.3 #18	LT
Yards / play	5.54 #83	5.17 #57	LT
PPA / play	+0.01 #117	−0.02 #28	LT
Success rate	34% #133	37% #29	LT

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

LT scoring against the UTEP defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LT scored	6.8 #66	8.3 #78	15.0 #76	5.3 #82	7.3 #62	12.5 #78
UTEP allowed	7.8 #111	8.5 #95	16.3 #108	6.0 #87	3.5 #24	9.5 #45

UTEP scoring against the LT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UTEP scored	5.3 #89	6.8 #98	12.0 #100	4.3 #103	7.0 #65	11.3 #90
LT allowed	4.3 #60	4.3 #19	8.5 #36	2.5 #22	3.3 #19	5.8 #11

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.