Middle Tennessee @ Kennesaw State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2025)

Sat, Sep 27, 2025, 6:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Kennesaw State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff79°F3 mphgusts 9DryWeather watch ›

Middle Tennessee

1-3 · Power #128

final

Final

Kennesaw State

2-2 · Power #97

▲ winner

Closing spread

KENN -7.5

✓ KENN W

Total

54.5

▼ Under · 40 pts

Model before kickoff

MTSU 22–29 KENN

✓ KENN (69%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenKENN -6.5

CloseKENN -7.5

Total52.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenKENN -6.5

1 → KENN

CloseKENN -7.5

1 pt toward Kennesaw State

Total

Open52.5

▲ 2

Close54.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened KENN -6.5 · closed KENN -7.5 · moved 1 toward KENNmodel KENN -4.5

model KENN -4.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 73%, covered 57% (146 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 61% (54 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenKENN -6.5

CloseKENN -7.5

Total52.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like KENN as a 7.5-point home favorite against MTSU, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: KENN won 24–16; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 40 points stayed under 54.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 71%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.8 against an average line of 5.6; 48.6 points a game (usually 53.4). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	FIU vs MTSU 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & season form	-9.5	35–24	W	O51
Very close	CMU vs EMU 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	26–23	L	O47.5
Very close	BGSU vs WMU 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar team ratings & situation	-5	13–9	L	U48
Very close	NIU vs TLSA 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & total	-4	14–22	L	U54.5
Close	LT vs SHSU 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-8.5	27–42	L	O49.25
Close	ECU vs TEM 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & situation	-8.5	56–34	W	O48.5
Close	AKR vs BUFF 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	10–13	L	U55.5
Close	WMU vs CMU 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar total & situation	-3.5	38–28	W	O57.5
Close	USM vs ULM 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & total	-3	24–7	W	U56.5
Close	NEV vs HAW 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	14–27	L	U50

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MTSU LLWL	1-3	25%	1-1	1-2
KENN WLLW	2-2	50%	1-1	0-1

Venue/role: MTSU away, as underdog; KENN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MTSU UOUO	2-2	50%	1-3
KENN UOUU	1-3	25%	2-2

Stayed under: it needed 24 in the 4th quarter and got 9. 52% of games with totals 50.5–58.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MTSU	3-7 30%	2-8 20%	4-6 40%
KENN	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

MTSU 1–1 KENN Series tied · 2 games since 2024 · KENN has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 15 2024	Kennesaw State 5 @ Middle Tennessee 14	MTSU -10.5	KENN W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MTSU−18.0 →−18.2▼ 0.2#131

KENN−24.1 →−16.9▲ 7.2#129

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

MTSU

Longer bar = better

KENN

#125

Offense

KENN better ▶

#106

#114

Defense

KENN better ▶

#85

+0.5 #51

Turnovers

◀ MTSU better

−1.3 #128

61 plays #122

Pace

KENN faster ▶

69 plays #49

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MTSU has the ball

Advantage: KENN defense

	MTSU off	KENN def	Edge
Points / game	16.5 #127	25.0 #82	KENN
Yards / play	4.62 #129	5.67 #91	KENN
PPA / play	−0.02 #126	+0.14 #92	KENN
Success rate	38% #117	41% #73	KENN

When KENN has the ball

Even matchup

	KENN off	MTSU def	Edge
Points / game	18.3 #122	32.8 #122	Even
Yards / play	5.25 #108	6.07 #112	Even
PPA / play	+0.06 #100	+0.22 #120	Even
Success rate	40% #95	44% #103	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

MTSU scoring against the KENN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MTSU scored	4.3 #103	5.0 #116	9.3 #119	3.8 #113	3.5 #121	7.3 #125
KENN allowed	5.3 #82	3.5 #18	8.8 #41	7.8 #116	8.5 #109	16.3 #125

KENN scoring against the MTSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KENN scored	6.8 #70	3.3 #132	10.0 #114	7.5 #52	0.8 #135	8.3 #116
MTSU allowed	8.8 #117	8.5 #93	17.3 #113	4.3 #56	11.3 #131	15.5 #120

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.