Arkansas State @ Kennesaw State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2025)

Sat, Sep 20, 2025, 6:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Kennesaw State

Weather at kickoff86°F4 mphgusts 11Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Arkansas State

1-2 · Power #110

final

Final

Kennesaw State

1-2 · Power #97

▲ winner

Closing spread

ARST -4.5

✓ KENN W

Total

58.5

▼ Under · 49 pts

Model before kickoff

ARST 30–25 KENN

✗ ARST (63%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenARST -7.5

CloseARST -4.5

Total54.5 → 58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenARST -7.5

3 → KENN

CloseARST -4.5

3 pts toward Kennesaw State

Total

Open54.5

▲ 4

Close58.5

Up 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ARST -7.5 · closed ARST -4.5 · moved 3 toward KENNmodel ARST -5

model ARST -5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 62%, covered 48% (101 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 61% (49 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenARST -7.5

CloseARST -4.5

Total54.5 → 58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ARST as a 4.5-point road favorite at KENN, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: KENN won 28–21 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 49 points stayed under 58.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.1 against an average line of 5.1; 55.1 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 3 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	ARST @ USM 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & total	-7	44–28	W	O56.5
Close	EMU @ AKR 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & season form	-6.25	34–28	L	O57.25
Close	OHIO @ BALL 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & total	-3.5	32–18	W	U57.5
Loose	GASO @ BALL 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & situation	-6	40–3	W	U61
Loose	LT @ FIU 2022 · Week 9 · loose · similar season form & rest	-6.5	34–42	L	O57
Loose	WMU @ CMU 2024 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest & season form	-6	14–16	L	U56
Loose	FAU @ CLT 2023 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & spread	-3.5	38–16	W	O45
Loose	LT @ CLT 2022 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & season form	-2	21–26	L	U66.5
Loose	MTSU @ SHSU 2023 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest & season form	-3.5	20–23	L	U50
Loose	USU @ TEM 2024 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation & rest	-6.5	29–45	L	O53.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ARST WLW	2-1	67%	0-1	1-0
KENN WLL	1-2	33%	0-1	1-1

Venue/role: ARST away, as favorite; KENN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ARST OOU	2-1	67%	1-2
KENN UOU	1-2	33%	1-2

Stayed under: it needed 17 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 50% of games with totals 54.5–62.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ARST	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%
KENN	3-7 30%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

ARST 1–1 KENN Series tied · 2 games since 2025 · ARST has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ARST−9.7 →−11.8▼ 2.1#114

KENN−24.1 →−19.4▲ 4.7#131

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

ARST

Longer bar = better

KENN

#97

Offense

◀ ARST better

#121

#131

Defense

KENN better ▶

#101

0.0 #72

Turnovers

◀ ARST better

−1.0 #122

73 plays #23

Pace

◀ ARST faster

64 plays #97

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ARST has the ball

Even matchup

	ARST off	KENN def	Edge
Points / game	24.0 #92	26.3 #94	Even
Yards / play	5.29 #104	6.02 #108	Even
PPA / play	+0.05 #102	+0.19 #108	Even
Success rate	41% #90	43% #94	Even

When KENN has the ball

Even matchup

	KENN off	ARST def	Edge
Points / game	15.0 #122	34.7 #122	Even
Yards / play	4.93 #113	7.77 #135	KENN
PPA / play	+0.02 #117	+0.37 #133	Even
Success rate	34% #130	52% #135	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 129 FBS teams

ARST scoring against the KENN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARST scored	4.7 #87	12.7 #27	17.3 #53	3.3 #100	3.3 #113	6.7 #117
KENN allowed	7.0 #97	2.3 #15	9.3 #51	8.0 #111	9.0 #105	17.0 #120

KENN scoring against the ARST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KENN scored	2.0 #119	4.3 #112	6.3 #121	7.7 #54	1.0 #125	8.7 #104
ARST allowed	14.7 #127	6.0 #57	20.7 #119	4.7 #67	9.3 #113	14.0 #99

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.