Georgia State @ Vanderbilt: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2025)

Sat, Sep 20, 2025, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Vanderbilt

Weather at kickoff83°F2 mphgusts 8DryWeather watch ›

Georgia State

1-2 · Power #125

final

Final

Vanderbilt

3-0 · Power #13

▲ winner

Closing spread

VAN -26.5

✓ VAN W

Total

52.5

▲ Over · 91 pts

Model before kickoff

GAST 15–42 VAN

✓ VAN (97%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenVAN -26.5

CloseVAN -26.5

Total53.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenVAN -26.5

no move

CloseVAN -26.5

No change since the open

Total

Open53.5

▼ 1

Close52.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened VAN -26.5 · unchangedmodel VAN -27.5

model VAN -27.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 25.5–27.5 since 2023: won 98%, covered 51% (63 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenVAN -26.5

CloseVAN -26.5

Total53.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like VAN as a 26.5-point home favorite against GAST, the favorite won 10, covered 4, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: VAN won 70–21; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 91 points went over 52.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 95%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 25.8 against an average line of 26.7; 46.8 points a game (usually 54.2). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	CIN vs USF 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-27	28–24	L	U58.5
Close	UK vs NIU 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-26.75	31–23	L	O53
Close	IU vs PUR 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & spread	-28.5	66–0	W	O56.5
Close	IU vs CLT 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar situation & rest	-28.5	52–14	W	O50.5
Close	ILL vs WMU 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & situation	-27.5	38–0	W	U50.5
Close	ARMY vs UAB 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & season form	-27	44–10	W	U55.5
Close	PSU vs NU 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-25.5	17–7	L	U50
Close	FRES vs NEV 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & total	-24.5	27–9	L	U51.5
Loose	ND vs M-OH 2024 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & situation	-27.5	28–3	L	U44
Loose	JMU vs USM 2024 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & total	-24	32–15	L	U54

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GAST LLL	0-3	0%	0-1	0-2
VAN WWW	3-0	100%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: GAST away, as underdog; VAN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
GAST OUU	1-2	33%	1-2
VAN UOU	1-2	33%	3-0

Went over in Q3. Of 486 earlier overs in games with totals 48.5–56.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GAST	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%
VAN	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

GAST 1–0 VAN GAST leads · 1 game since 2023 · GAST has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 14 2024	Vanderbilt 32 @ Georgia State 36	VAN -8.5	GAST W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

GAST−9.1 →−12.3▼ 3.2#116

VAN+3.1 →+9.9▲ 6.8#31

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

GAST

Longer bar = better

VAN

#83

Offense

VAN better ▶

#14

#120

Defense

VAN better ▶

#36

−0.7 #99

Turnovers

VAN better ▶

+1.3 #18

63 plays #100

Pace

◀ GAST faster

60 plays #124

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When GAST has the ball

Advantage: VAN defense

	GAST off	VAN def	Edge
Points / game	20.0 #108	10.0 #14	VAN
Yards / play	5.81 #75	4.21 #29	VAN
PPA / play	+0.20 #59	+0.02 #59	Even
Success rate	42% #89	36% #43	VAN

When VAN has the ball

Advantage: VAN offense

	VAN off	GAST def	Edge
Points / game	40.0 #31	40.7 #134	VAN
Yards / play	7.23 #20	6.47 #122	VAN
PPA / play	+0.53 #3	+0.19 #109	VAN
Success rate	61% #3	46% #113	VAN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 131 FBS teams

GAST scoring against the VAN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GAST scored	7.7 #54	7.7 #84	15.3 #73	2.3 #118	2.3 #125	4.7 #130
VAN allowed	5.7 #87	3.3 #20	9.0 #47	0.0 #1	1.0 #5	1.0 #1

VAN scoring against the GAST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
VAN scored	7.0 #59	10.3 #44	17.3 #55	9.0 #31	13.7 #3	22.7 #6
GAST allowed	4.7 #70	11.7 #121	16.3 #101	10.3 #125	14.0 #131	24.3 #131

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.