Tulane @ Ole Miss: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2025)

Sat, Sep 20, 2025, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Ole Miss

Weather at kickoff88°F7 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›

Tulane

3-0 · Power #57

final

Final

Ole Miss

3-0 · Power #9

▲ winner

Closing spread

MISS -11.5

✓ MISS W

Total

61.5

▼ Under · 55 pts

Model before kickoff

TULN 23–35 MISS

✓ MISS (82%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMISS -12.5

CloseMISS -11.5

Total61.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMISS -12.5

1 → TULN

CloseMISS -11.5

1 pt toward Tulane

Total

Open61.5

no move

Close61.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MISS -12.5 · closed MISS -11.5 · moved 1 toward TULNmodel MISS -17.5

model MISS -17.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 10.5–12.5 since 2023: won 73%, covered 39% (81 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 51% (186 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMISS -12.5

CloseMISS -11.5

Total61.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MISS as an 11.5-point home favorite against TULN, the favorite won 10, covered 7, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: MISS won 45–10; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 55 points stayed under 61.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 76%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 20.7 against an average line of 11.8; 60.3 points a game (usually 54.5). Of the 2 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	OU vs WVU 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & season form	-13	59–20	W	O59.5
Close	TENN vs SC 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & total	-12.5	41–20	W	U63
Close	TEX vs UTSA 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & situation	-13	41–20	W	O57
Close	TENN vs UK 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar total & season form	-10.5	44–6	W	U62.5
Close	PSU vs MD 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-10.5	30–0	W	U56.5
Close	MISS vs ARK 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & total	-13	27–20	L	U62
Close	FSU vs FLA 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-10	45–38	L	O58
Close	KSU vs KU 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-10	29–27	L	P56
Close	KSU vs KU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & total	-12	47–27	W	O62
Close	USC vs RUTG 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-13.75	42–20	W	O56.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TULN WLW	2-1	67%	0-1	1-0
MISS WLW	2-1	67%	2-0	2-1

Venue/role: TULN away, as underdog; MISS home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TULN UOO	2-1	67%	3-0
MISS OOO	3-0	100%	3-0

Stayed under: it needed 36 in the 4th quarter and got 29. 46% of games with totals 57.5–65.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TULN	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
MISS	8-2 80%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

TULN 0–1 MISS MISS leads · 1 game since 2023 · MISS has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 9 2023	Ole Miss 37 @ Tulane 20	MISS -13	MISS W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TULN+5.1 →+4.8▼ 0.3#50

MISS+19.8 →+18.3▼ 1.5#9

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

TULN

Longer bar = better

MISS

#66

Offense

MISS better ▶

#21

#70

Defense

◀ TULN better

#90

+2.0 #9

Turnovers

◀ TULN better

−0.7 #103

70 plays #44

Pace

MISS faster ▶

74 plays #17

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TULN has the ball

Advantage: TULN offense

	TULN off	MISS def	Edge
Points / game	30.0 #69	21.7 #73	Even
Yards / play	6.00 #62	5.67 #97	TULN
PPA / play	+0.17 #65	+0.22 #117	TULN
Success rate	44% #66	40% #72	Even

When MISS has the ball

Advantage: MISS offense

	MISS off	TULN def	Edge
Points / game	44.7 #18	20.3 #66	MISS
Yards / play	7.29 #18	5.47 #89	MISS
PPA / play	+0.30 #29	−0.05 #28	Even
Success rate	54% #17	43% #96	MISS

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 123 FBS teams

TULN scoring against the MISS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TULN scored	11.7 #14	11.0 #42	22.7 #25	4.3 #89	3.0 #109	7.3 #106
MISS allowed	4.7 #62	11.3 #110	16.0 #94	2.3 #20	3.3 #30	5.7 #18

MISS scoring against the TULN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MISS scored	4.7 #81	19.7 #1	24.3 #17	11.3 #14	9.0 #39	20.3 #16
TULN allowed	5.7 #77	3.0 #18	8.7 #41	2.3 #20	9.3 #108	11.7 #76

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.