North Texas @ Army: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2025)

Sat, Sep 20, 2025, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Army · Conference game

Weather at kickoff66°F4 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›

North Texas

3-0 · Power #38

▲ winner

Final

Army

1-1 · Power #83

final

Closing spread

UNT -2.5

✓ UNT W

Total

50.5

▲ Over · 83 pts

Model before kickoff

UNT 30–26 ARMY

✓ UNT (60%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenARMY -1.5

CloseUNT -2.5

Total53.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenARMY -1.5

4 → UNT

CloseUNT -2.5

4 pts toward North Texas

Total

Open53.5

▼ 3

Close50.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ARMY -1.5 · closed UNT -2.5 · moved 4 toward UNTmodel UNT -8.5

model UNT -8.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 53%, covered 45% (172 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 41% (112 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenARMY -1.5

CloseUNT -2.5

Total53.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UNT as a 2.5-point road favorite at ARMY, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: UNT won 45–38; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 83 points went over 50.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8.4 against an average line of 3.9; 42 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	WVU @ OHIO 2025 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation	-3.5	10–17	L	U58.5
Loose	SYR @ PUR 2023 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation	-1	35–20	W	U56.5
Loose	MINN @ MSU 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation & spread	-3	34–7	W	U50
Loose	LOU @ NCSU 2023 · Week 5 · loose · similar situation	-3.5	13–10	L	U55.5
Loose	CAL @ ORST 2025 · Week 1 · loose · similar total & spread	-2.5	34–15	W	O48.5
Loose	NAVY @ UAB 2024 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest	-4.5	41–18	W	O56.5
Loose	AFA @ SJSU 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation	-6	45–20	W	O45.5
Loose	FRES @ WYO 2023 · Week 6 · loose · similar situation	-6	19–24	L	P43
Loose	MRSH @ TROY 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation	-3.25	7–16	L	U51.5
Loose	UAB @ LIB 2022 · Week 2 · loose · similar total & situation	-6	14–21	L	U50

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNT WLW	2-1	67%	0-1	2-1
ARMY LW	1-1	50%	0-1	1-0

Venue/role: UNT away, as favorite; ARMY home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNT UOO	2-1	67%	3-0
ARMY OU	1-1	50%	1-1

Went over in Q3. Of 476 earlier overs in games with totals 46.5–54.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNT	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
ARMY	7-3 70%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

UNT 0–1 ARMY ARMY leads · 1 game since 2023 · ARMY has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 9 2024	Army 14 @ North Texas 3	ARMY -6.5	ARMY W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UNT−6.2 →+3.6▲ 9.8#56

ARMY−9.7 →−6.9▲ 2.8#90

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

UNT

Longer bar = better

ARMY

#30

Offense

◀ UNT better

#106

#18

Defense

◀ UNT better

#73

+2.0 #4

Turnovers

◀ UNT better

−1.0 #119

67 plays #61

Pace

ARMY faster ▶

82 plays #3

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UNT has the ball

Advantage: UNT offense

	UNT off	ARMY def	Edge
Points / game	47.7 #12	25.5 #92	UNT
Yards / play	6.36 #45	5.13 #65	Even
PPA / play	+0.40 #15	+0.15 #99	UNT
Success rate	46% #49	36% #36	Even

When ARMY has the ball

Advantage: UNT defense

	ARMY off	UNT def	Edge
Points / game	25.5 #84	13.3 #30	UNT
Yards / play	4.53 #126	3.71 #10	UNT
PPA / play	+0.03 #113	−0.25 #6	UNT
Success rate	40% #101	33% #25	UNT

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 119 FBS teams

UNT scoring against the ARMY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNT scored	9.0 #34	19.7 #2	28.7 #7	11.3 #13	5.7 #71	17.0 #30
ARMY allowed	3.0	8.5	11.5	7.5	3.5	11.0

ARMY scoring against the UNT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARMY scored	3.5	8.5	12.0	7.0	5.0	12.0
UNT allowed	1.0 #12	5.7 #41	6.7 #24	2.3 #20	3.3 #32	5.7 #20

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.