South Alabama @ North Texas: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2025)

Sat, Sep 27, 2025, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at North Texas

Weather at kickoff78°F4 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

South Alabama

1-3 · Power #102

final

Final

North Texas

4-0 · Power #38

▲ winner

Closing spread

UNT -11.5

✓ UNT W

Total

63.5

▼ Under · 58 pts

Model before kickoff

USA 25–37 UNT

✓ UNT (81%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUNT -12.5

CloseUNT -11.5

Total63.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUNT -12.5

1 → USA

CloseUNT -11.5

1 pt toward South Alabama

Total

Open63.5

no move

Close63.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UNT -12.5 · closed UNT -11.5 · moved 1 toward USAmodel UNT -14.5

model UNT -14.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 10.5–12.5 since 2023: won 74%, covered 40% (85 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 51% (199 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUNT -12.5

CloseUNT -11.5

Total63.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UNT as an 11.5-point home favorite against USA, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: UNT won 36–22; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 58 points stayed under 63.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 76%

Favorite covered

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 52%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 15.2 against an average line of 12.2; 57.2 points a game (usually 54.3). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	LIB vs ODU 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & situation	-13.5	38–10	W	U58.5
Close	WKU vs UNT 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & situation	-10	13–40	L	U70
Close	WKU vs RICE 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & total	-13.5	45–10	W	U61
Close	TXST vs ARST 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-13.5	41–9	W	U66
Close	USA vs LT 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-13	38–14	W	U59
Close	TOL vs SJSU 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & situation	-9	21–17	L	U56.5
Close	UL vs APP 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & total	-10	34–24	P	U64
Close	UCF vs BAY 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-11.5	35–36	L	O56
Close	LIB vs LT 2023 · Week 10 · close	-14.5	56–30	W	O59
Close	TEX vs UTSA 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & spread	-13	41–20	W	O57

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USA LWWL	2-2	50%	1-0	2-0
UNT WLWW	3-1	75%	2-0	3-1

Venue/role: USA away, as underdog; UNT home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USA OOUO	3-1	75%	1-3
UNT UOOO	3-1	75%	4-0

Stayed under: it needed 22 in the 4th quarter and got 16. 43% of games with totals 59.5–67.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USA	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
UNT	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

USA 0–3 UNT UNT leads · 3 games since 2012 · UNT has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Aug 31 2024	North Texas 52 @ South Alabama 38	USA -5.5	UNT W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

USA−2.3 →−7.5▼ 5.2#93

UNT−6.2 →+2.9▲ 9.1#61

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

USA

Longer bar = better

UNT

#90

Offense

UNT better ▶

#28

#102

Defense

UNT better ▶

#36

−0.8 #120

Turnovers

UNT better ▶

+2.0 #1

67 plays #65

Pace

UNT faster ▶

70 plays #36

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USA has the ball

Advantage: UNT defense

	USA off	UNT def	Edge
Points / game	26.0 #85	19.5 #48	UNT
Yards / play	5.64 #83	4.39 #27	UNT
PPA / play	+0.05 #110	−0.12 #12	UNT
Success rate	42% #80	39% #55	UNT

When UNT has the ball

Advantage: UNT offense

	UNT off	USA def	Edge
Points / game	47.0 #9	30.8 #115	UNT
Yards / play	6.29 #49	5.32 #69	Even
PPA / play	+0.32 #23	+0.21 #118	UNT
Success rate	50% #29	44% #104	UNT

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

USA scoring against the UNT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USA scored	6.0 #79	7.5 #90	13.5 #87	4.0 #109	8.5 #47	12.5 #86
UNT allowed	2.5 #35	6.0 #52	8.5 #38	3.5 #45	6.8 #78	10.3 #57

UNT scoring against the USA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNT scored	12.0 #15	16.5 #9	28.5 #8	9.3 #29	6.0 #84	15.3 #52
USA allowed	7.0 #101	9.5 #108	16.5 #107	6.8 #99	7.5 #86	14.3 #107

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.