South Florida @ North Texas: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2025)

Fri, Oct 10, 2025, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 7 · at North Texas · Conference game

Weather at kickoff81°F3 mphDryWeather watch ›

South Florida

4-1 · Power #29

▲ winner

Final

North Texas

5-0 · Power #38

final

Closing spread

UNT -2.5

✓ USF W

Total

68.5

▲ Over · 99 pts

Model before kickoff

USF 31–34 UNT

✗ UNT (57%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUNT -1.5

CloseUNT -2.5

Total66.5 → 68.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUNT -1.5

1 → UNT

CloseUNT -2.5

1 pt toward North Texas

Total

Open66.5

▲ 2

Close68.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UNT -1.5 · closed UNT -2.5 · moved 1 toward UNTmodel UNT -2

model UNT -2

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 58%, covered 50% (249 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 51% (190 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUNT -1.5

CloseUNT -2.5

Total66.5 → 68.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UNT as a 2.5-point home favorite against USF, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: USF won 63–36 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 99 points went over 68.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8 against an average line of 4.4; 58.8 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TCU vs OKST 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & situation	-5	43–40	L	O70
Close	PITT vs SYR 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar situation	-5	41–13	W	U62.5
Close	UCF vs SMU 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & spread	-3	41–19	W	U65
Close	BOIS vs WSU 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar total & situation	-6.5	45–24	W	O66
Close	UCLA vs WSU 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	25–17	W	U60
Close	GASO vs CCU 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & total	-6	38–28	W	O64.5
Close	TXST vs UL 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar spread	-4	17–23	L	U60.5
Close	WKU vs UAB 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar situation	-1.25	20–17	W	U60.5
Close	FSU vs WAKE 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar total & situation	-6	21–31	L	U67.5
Close	UTAH vs USC 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	43–42	L	O65

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USF WWLWL	3-2	60%	1-1	2-1
UNT WLWWW	4-1	80%	3-0	4-1

Venue/role: USF away, as underdog; UNT home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USF UUOOO	3-2	60%	4-1
UNT UOOOU	3-2	60%	5-0

Went over in Q3. Of 39 earlier overs in games with totals 64.5–72.5, 21% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USF	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%
UNT	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

USF−3.9 →+5.5▲ 9.4#47

UNT−6.2 →+4.2▲ 10.4#55

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

USF

Longer bar = better

UNT

#57

Offense

UNT better ▶

#22

#46

Defense

UNT better ▶

#30

+0.8 #30

Turnovers

UNT better ▶

+1.6 #1

67 plays #53

Pace

Even

69 plays #40

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USF has the ball

Advantage: UNT defense

	USF off	UNT def	Edge
Points / game	36.2 #34	20.0 #42	Even
Yards / play	6.62 #27	4.52 #23	Even
PPA / play	+0.14 #69	−0.08 #13	UNT
Success rate	41% #98	39% #40	UNT

When UNT has the ball

Advantage: UNT offense

	UNT off	USF def	Edge
Points / game	44.8 #8	22.4 #62	UNT
Yards / play	6.35 #41	5.24 #54	Even
PPA / play	+0.32 #15	−0.08 #15	Even
Success rate	49% #24	40% #54	UNT

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

USF scoring against the UNT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USF scored	6.6 #61	8.6 #73	15.2 #68	11.6 #3	9.4 #26	21.0 #7
UNT allowed	3.4 #38	4.8 #26	8.2 #27	4.2 #49	7.0 #83	11.2 #70

UNT scoring against the USF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNT scored	11.0 #8	14.6 #11	25.6 #7	10.2 #10	6.4 #78	16.6 #27
USF allowed	4.8 #69	6.8 #58	11.6 #63	2.0 #12	8.8 #120	10.8 #59

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.